NPR：低出生率叠加移民执法，全美公立学校入学持续下滑、40个州学区受波及
美国洛杉矶消息，美国国家公共电台 11 月 6 日报道，全美公立学校正面临持续的入学人数下滑：低出生率已让入学人数多年下降，移民执法收紧又使这一趋势加速，40 个州的学区受到波及，部分校园面临关闭。
据美国人口普查局数据，18 岁以下人口自 2010 年后开始下降，至 2025 年减少约 210 万人。据美国教育部数据，全美公立学校入学人数在 2019 年达到峰值，至 2024 学年已减少约 150 万人；联邦研究人员预计，到 2030 年将再减少至少 200 万人，十年间全国入学人数累计降幅约 7%。
洛杉矶联合学区是全美第二大学区，过去 20 年流失逾 30 万名学生。学区董事会成员凯利·戈内兹说，移民与海关执法局 2025 年在洛杉矶突袭升级后，入学下滑加速："我们的许多家庭立即躲了起来。我们原本预计入学下降 2%，实际是这个数字的两倍。"学区官员说，低出生率与移民家庭子女流失意味着部分校园可能不得不关闭。
移民政策研究所的研究称，特朗普第二任期头 18 个月多达 190 万人离开美国；联邦官员放宽了限制移民执法人员在公立学校附近执法的规定。斯坦福大学教育政策经济学家托马斯·迪说，这是近一个世纪以来、即大萧条时代以来首次出现出生率与移民水平同时偏低的情况，"社区现在正面临关闭学校这样非常痛苦的决定"。
今年 6 月，智库 Bellwether 与 WestEd 的报告警告，公立学校已进入"持续"入学下降的时代，40 个州的学区入学结构正在被重塑；报告认为主要驱动因素仍是出生率持续下降，其次是全国移民放缓，预计每年学校经费损失将达 110 亿美元。布鲁金斯学会估计，多达 460 万学龄儿童生活在有家庭成员面临被驱逐风险的家庭中。德克萨斯州去年全州公立学校学生减少逾 7.6 万人。
白宫对此有不同说法：发言人劳伦·比斯说，驱逐行动让美国教室不那么拥挤，并援引政府 9 月发布的数据称，2025 年 1 月至 2026 年 7 月外国出生人口减少 290 万人。
NPR: Low Birth Rates and Immigration Enforcement Are Emptying America's Public Schools, With 40 States Affected
LOS ANGELES — U.S. public schools are facing a sustained fall in enrollment, National Public Radio reported on November 6: low birth rates had already been driving pupil numbers down for years, and tighter immigration enforcement is now accelerating the decline, with school districts in 40 states affected and some campuses facing closure.
According to U.S. Census data, the population of children under 18 began falling after 2010, dropping by roughly 2.1 million kids through 2025. According to the U.S. Department of Education, the number of children in public schools nationwide peaked in 2019 and had fallen by roughly 1.5 million students as of the 2024 school year; federal researchers project a further fall of at least 2 million by 2030, about 7 percent nationally in roughly a decade.
The Los Angeles Unified School District, the second largest in the country, has lost more than 300,000 students over the last two decades. School board member Kelly Gonez said enrollment declines worsened after U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids escalated in the city in 2025: "Many of our families immediately went into hiding," she said. "We were predicting a 2% drop in enrollment. It was double that." District officials say low birth rates and the loss of immigrant children in classrooms mean school campuses will likely have to close.
A study by the Migration Policy Institute found that as many as 1.9 million people left the United States during the first 18 months of Donald Trump's second term, and federal officials weakened restrictions that prevented immigration officers from operating near public schools. Thomas Dee, a Stanford University economist who studies education policy, said this is the first time in nearly a century, since the era of the Great Depression, that birth rates and immigration levels are low at the same time: "Communities are now confronting very painful decisions about closing schools."
A report published in June by the research groups Bellwether and WestEd warned that public schools have entered an era of "sustained" enrollment decline, reshaping districts in 40 states; the report found the main driver remains the long fall in birth rates, followed by a national slowdown in immigration, and predicted a loss of 11 billion dollars a year in school funding. The Brookings Institution estimates that as many as 4.6 million school-age children live in households with family members vulnerable to deportation. Texas saw the number of children in classrooms plunge statewide last year by more than 76,000 students.
The White House presents the trend very differently: spokeswoman Lauren Bis said deportations make American classrooms less crowded, and pointed to a September administration post celebrating a fall of 2.9 million in the foreign-born population between January 2025 and July 2026.
来源：美国国家公共广播电台
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：洛杉矶联合学区总部大楼。图片来源：Wikimedia Commons，CC BY-SA 3.0。 / Photo: Los Angeles Unified School District headquarters. Photo: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.
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