新西兰11月7日大选难分胜负：提前投票已逾125万，中间党机会党或成造王者
新西兰将于11月7日举行大选，总理卢克森（Christopher Luxon）领导的国家党联合政府寻求连任，反对党工党领袖希普金斯（Chris Hipkins）争取重返总理职位。两党领袖11月5日作最后拉票，卢克森在霍克斯湾说，选情将紧咬到最后。
本周民调显示两大阵营均无明确多数：1News-Verian民调中国家党30%、工党29%，现执政联盟推算58席、差3席过半，中间派机会党的7席可能决定组阁。选举委员会数据指，提前投票10月26日开始，至周二已有1,250,057人投票，高于2023年同期。
Ipsos调查显示，通胀与生活成本是选民最关心的问题，其次是医疗。新西兰实行比例代表制，评论预计组阁谈判可能需数周，最终计票结果定于11月27日公布。
（来源：新西兰选举委员会）
New Zealand Election Too Close to Call: 1.25 Million Early Votes, Opportunity Party Poised as Kingmaker
New Zealand holds its general election on November 7, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's National-led coalition seeking a second term and Labour leader Chris Hipkins trying to return to the job he lost in 2023. Making final appeals on November 5, Luxon told reporters in Hawke's Bay the election would likely go down to the wire.
Polls this week show no clear majority for either bloc. The final 1News-Verian poll put National on 30 percent and Labour on 29 percent, modelling the coalition at 58 seats, three short of a majority, with the centrist Opportunity Party's seven seats holding the balance. Early voting began on October 26, and 1,250,057 votes had been cast by Tuesday, up from 1,007,928 at the same point in 2023, according to Electoral Commission data.
An Ipsos survey found inflation and the cost of living are voters' biggest concerns, followed by healthcare. Under proportional representation, commentators expect coalition talks could take weeks; the final count is due on November 27.
(Source: Electoral Commission, New Zealand)
来源：新西兰选举委员会
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