NOAA新一代天气预报系统上线：每小时更新，预报时效从48小时延至84小时
美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）宣布，其新一代快速刷新预报系统（Rapid Refresh Forecast System，RRFS）已于2026年11月3日由国家气象局投入业务运行。这是美国区域天气预报模式多年来的最大升级：新系统每小时更新一次，覆盖整个北美，预报时效较上一代主力模式延长了36小时。
RRFS 把 NOAA 现有两套区域模式的长处合到了一起：一边是高分辨率快速刷新模式（HRRR）每小时更新、能为每块3公里见方的地面出预报的精细度，一边是北美中尺度模式（NAM）覆盖整个大陆的大范围。两者合并后，美国本土的预报时效从 HRRR 的48小时延长到84小时。
新系统的覆盖范围包括美国本土、阿拉斯加、夏威夷和波多黎各，并延伸到加拿大、墨西哥、中美洲与加勒比地区，精细程度足以预报雷暴、龙卷风和山洪这类小尺度、高影响天气；近海与离岸海域也不再需要在不同模式之间切换。配套的集合预报系统 REFS 在同一套3公里网格上运行多次模拟，能算出严重冰雹、山洪等局地事件的发生概率，为应急管理者、一线救援人员和气象播报者提供决策依据。
RRFS 还第一次把火灾与烟尘预报做进了业务系统。它带有一个按需启用的1.5公里精细模式，可针对火灾天气、交通走廊复杂冬季天气和强雷暴加密计算；其烟尘子系统 RRFS-SD 是 NOAA 第一个转入国家气象局业务运行的高分辨率烟尘模型，能预报未来18到84小时内野火烟尘和沙尘在北美上空的走向，包括影响航班的高空烟尘和影响健康与能见度的近地面颗粒物，并配套 NOAA 首个逐小时野火潜势预报，评估野火快速蔓延的风险。
NOAA局长 Neil Jacobs 说：「RRFS 从研究转入业务运行，是 NOAA 天气预报模式体系现代化的重要一步。它把我们一些最强的能力延伸开来，给出更准确、更早的预报，守护美国民众的安全。」国家气象局局长 Ken Graham 说：「RRFS 是我们区域天气模式多年来最大的改进。更高的精度能帮助预报员发布更好的预报和警报，为地方应急管理者提供更好的决策支持。」
随着 RRFS 上线，NOAA 将陆续停用北美中尺度模式（NAM）、短期集合预报、高分辨率集合预报等五套老旧区域模式，统一简化国家气象局的业务模式体系。RRFS 由 NOAA 全球系统实验室与国家气象局模式开发部门牵头，联合学术机构、其他联邦机构和国际伙伴共同开发。NOAA 科研助理局长 Steve Thur 说，RRFS 是科研支撑 NOAA 核心使命的典范，公众将因此得到更好的天气信息。
NOAA's New Rapid Refresh Forecast System Goes Live, Extending Forecast Lead Time to 84 Hours
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that its next-generation Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) entered operational service with the National Weather Service on November 3, 2026. It is the biggest upgrade to U.S. regional weather modeling in years: the system updates every hour, covers all of North America, and extends forecast lead time by 36 hours over the previous workhorse model.
RRFS combines the biggest strengths of NOAA's existing regional models: the hourly updates and 3-kilometer grid detail of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR), which issues forecasts for each 3-kilometer square of land surface, and the continental-scale domain of the North American Mesoscale model (NAM). Combined, the new system extends forecast lead time for the contiguous United States to 84 hours, compared with the HRRR's 48 hours.
RRFS covers North America including Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico, along with Canada, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, with enough detail to predict high-impact, small-scale events such as thunderstorms, tornadoes and flash floods, and it provides seamless forecasts for coastal and offshore areas that previously required forecasters to switch between models. Its companion ensemble system, REFS, runs multiple simulations on the same 3-kilometer grid and can calculate the probability of local events such as severe hail or a flash flood, information NOAA called extremely valuable for emergency managers, first responders and broadcasters.
RRFS also brings fire and smoke forecasting into operations for the first time. It includes an on-demand mode with an even finer 1.5-kilometer grid for fire weather, complex winter weather over travel corridors and severe thunderstorms. Its RRFS-SD component is NOAA's first high-resolution smoke and dust model to transition to National Weather Service operations, predicting where aerosol particles from fires and dust storms will travel across North America over the next 18 to 84 hours, including high-altitude smoke that affects aviation and ground-level particulates that affect health and visibility. It also carries NOAA's first Hourly Wildfire Potential forecast, which evaluates the risk of rapid, intense wildfire spread.
"The transition of RRFS from research to operations represents a major step towards modernizing NOAA's weather forecast modeling suite," said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs. "RRFS extends the reach of some of our best capabilities and delivers more accurate, earlier forecasts to support Americans' safety and security." Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said: "RRFS is the biggest improvement to our regional weather models in years. The higher precision provided by this model helps our forecasters issue better forecasts, warnings, and decision support for local emergency managers."
As RRFS goes operational, NOAA will discontinue five outdated regional modeling systems, including the North American Mesoscale (NAM), the Short Range Ensemble Forecast and the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast, unifying its operational modeling suite. RRFS was developed by NOAA's Global Systems Laboratory and the National Weather Service's modeling offices together with academic institutions, other federal agencies and international partners. Steve Thur, NOAA's assistant administrator for research, said RRFS is a great example of how research supports one of NOAA's most critical missions, and that the public will be better informed because of NOAA research.
来源：美国国家海洋和大气管理局
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：美国国家海洋和大气管理局局长 Neil Jacobs 官方肖像，国家海洋和大气管理局发布。 / Photo: Official portrait of NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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