菲律宾：气象局称超强厄尔尼诺已经形成 干旱省份预计到明年3月增至87个
菲律宾大气、地球物理与天文服务管理局（PAGASA）11月4日在众议院农业委员会听证会上表示，热带太平洋已形成超强厄尔尼诺，预计在2026年底前达到峰值，干旱将威胁菲律宾全国的农业产出与供水。PAGASA 气候监测与预报科科长 Ana Liza S. Solis 对议员说：「超强厄尔尼诺目前正存在于热带太平洋。」
Solis 说，今年8月至10月热带太平洋海面温度异常平均约为2.5摄氏度，超过2度的超强厄尔尼诺界定门槛；多数气候模型预测，本轮厄尔尼诺将持续到2027年第一季。截至10月31日，菲律宾已有5个省份处于气象干旱，11个省份与高度城市化城市处于干期状态，另有10个省份处于偏干状态；PAGASA 预计，处于气象干旱的省份将增至12月的26个、明年1月的48个、2月的68个与3月的87个。其11月至明年4月的气候展望显示，全国大部分地区降雨量将低于正常至远低于正常，日间气温也可能高于正常。
菲律宾农业部在同一听证会上表示，正与地方政府和农民团体协调确定需要支持的地区并发布指导。农业部助理部长 U-Nichols A. Manalo 说，截至10月21日，厄尔尼诺已造成85亿比索农业损失，其中玉米损失近50亿比索、水稻次之；农业部已提供113.4亿比索援助，包括对受灾农民的赔付，并正申请额外资金用于人工降雨作业。PAGASA 还预计，尽管厄尔尼诺持续，11月与12月仍可能有一至两个热带气旋进入或穿越菲律宾陆地，该局将发布第6号厄尔尼诺咨询更新评估。
（来源：菲律宾大气地球物理和天文服务管理局）
Philippines: Weather Bureau Says a Very Strong El Niño Has Developed, With Drought Provinces Expected to Rise to 87 by March
A very strong El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific and is expected to peak before the end of 2026, raising the risk of prolonged dry spells, drought and warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the Philippines, the state weather bureau told a House of Representatives Agriculture Committee hearing on November 4. "A very strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific," Ana Liza S. Solis, chief of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, told lawmakers.
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific averaged about 2.5 degrees Celsius from August to October, exceeding the 2-degree threshold used to classify a very strong El Niño, Solis said, and most climate models predict the event will persist until the first quarter of 2027. As of October 31, five provinces were experiencing meteorological drought, while 11 provinces and highly urbanised cities were under dry-spell conditions and another 10 provinces were experiencing dry conditions. PAGASA expects the number of provinces in meteorological drought to rise to 26 by December, 48 by January, 68 by February and 87 by March 2027, with its November-to-April outlook pointing to below-normal to way-below-normal rainfall across much of the country.
The Department of Agriculture told the same hearing it was coordinating with local governments and farmer groups to identify areas requiring support. Assistant Secretary U-Nichols A. Manalo said agricultural damage from El Niño had reached 8.5 billion pesos as of October 21, with corn accounting for almost 5 billion pesos of the losses, followed by rice, and that the department had provided 11.34 billion pesos in assistance, including indemnification for affected farmers, while seeking additional funds for cloud-seeding operations. PAGASA also projected that one or two tropical cyclones could still enter or cross the Philippine landmass in November and December despite the El Niño, and is set to issue El Niño Advisory No. 6 with updated assessments.
来源：菲律宾大气地球物理和天文服务管理局
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图片来源：照片：菲律宾卡马利格干涸的稻田（资料图），Kiko Pangilinan 办公室 摄，Wikimedia Commons，公共领域 / Photo: Dry rice fields in Camalig, Philippines (file photo), by the Office of Kiko Pangilinan, Wikimedia Commons, public domain
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