跟进：美联社选民民调11月4日人口结构细分：30岁以下约七成投民主党众议员候选人，西语裔约六成
美国华盛顿消息，美联社选民民调 11 月 4 日公布的人口结构细分显示，年轻选民与西语裔选民在 2026 年中期选举中明显转向民主党，与 2024 年总统选举时的情形不同。民调由 SSRS 受美联社、美国广播公司、哥伦比亚广播公司、有线电视新闻网、福克斯新闻媒体、全国广播公司与 Versant 委托执行，覆盖全美 50 州的登记选民，阿拉斯加州访谈时间为 10 月 19 日至 11 月 3 日，其他各州为 10 月 22 日至 11 月 3 日。
30 岁以下选民的转向最为明显。民调显示，全国约七成 30 岁以下选民表示在本地众议员选战中支持民主党候选人，约三成支持共和党候选人；而在 2024 年，同一年龄段选民在特朗普与哈里斯之间大致均分。民调同时指出，30 岁以下选民约占全体选民的一成，规模有限，制约了这一转向的整体影响。据《华尔街日报》引述的民调口径，18 至 29 岁选民中约六成表示以众议员选票表达对特朗普的反对，65 岁以上选民中这一比例为 39%；约半数 30 岁以下选民表示对国家现状感到“愤怒”，65 岁以上选民中这一比例约为三分之一。
西语裔选民同样转向。民调显示，全国约六成西语裔选民表示在本地众议员选战中支持民主党候选人，约三分之一支持共和党候选人；而在 2024 年，约四成西语裔选民曾投票给特朗普。民调还指出，年轻选民在民主党翻盘的每一场参议员选战中都转向民主党，包括德克萨斯州、堪萨斯州、艾奥瓦州、俄亥俄州与北卡罗来纳州的选战。本稿所引均为民调受访者的自述投票意向，不是官方计票结果。
AP Voter Poll Demographic Breakdown, November 4: About 7 in 10 Voters Under 30 Backed the Democratic House Candidate; About 6 in 10 Hispanic Voters Did
WASHINGTON — The AP Voter Poll's demographic breakdown released November 4 shows young voters and Hispanic voters moved markedly toward Democrats in the 2026 midterms, a shift from the 2024 presidential election. The poll was conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, FOX News Media, NBC News and Versant, covering registered voters in all 50 states, with interviews from October 19 to November 3 in Alaska and October 22 to November 3 elsewhere.
The shift was sharpest among voters under 30. About 7 in 10 voters under 30 nationwide said they supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race, compared with about 3 in 10 who chose the Republican, while in 2024 voters in the same age group were roughly split between Trump and Harris. The poll notes that voters under 30 made up only about 1 in 10 of the electorate, limiting the overall effect of the shift. According to The Wall Street Journal's account of the poll, about 60 percent of voters aged 18 to 29 said they used their House vote to express opposition to Trump, compared with 39 percent of voters over 65; about half of voters under 30 said they were "angry" about the way things were going in the country, compared with about one-third of voters 65 and older.
Hispanic voters moved the same way. About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters nationwide said they voted for the Democratic candidate in their local House race, while about one-third backed the Republican; in 2024, roughly 4 in 10 Hispanic voters had voted for Trump. The poll also notes that young voters moved toward Democrats in every Senate race where the party gained a seat, including contests in Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina. The figures cited here are poll respondents' self-reported votes, not official vote counts.
来源：美联社
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图片来源：美国路易斯安那州选民在提前投票站排队（资料图），摄影 Infrogmation，CC BY-SA 4.0（Wikimedia Commons）
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
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- 2026-11-04 13:57跟进：美联社选民民调11月4日人口结构细分：30岁以下约七成投民主党众议员候选人，西语裔约六成本篇
