澳大利亚央行加息25个基点至4.85%：年内第五次加息、创2008年以来最高
澳大利亚储备银行（央行）11月3日宣布，将现金利率目标上调25个基点至4.85%，11月4日起生效。这是该行2026年内第五次加息，利率升至2008年全球金融危机以来最高水平。货币政策委员会以6票对3票通过决定，三名委员主张维持4.60%不变。
央行在会后声明中表示，最新数据确认基础通胀仍具广泛性，产能压力较此前估计略为紧张，燃油价格上涨正传导至其他商品与服务价格；通胀预计在未来一年保持在3%以上，通胀预期固化的风险上升。同步发布的货币政策声明上修了通胀预测：通胀要到2027年底才回到2%至3%目标区间的上沿，较此前预测晚约三个季度。澳大利亚统计局数据显示，截至今年9月的一年，消费价格指数（CPI）上涨4.3%。
央行行长 Michele Bullock 表示，下一步利率走向尚不明朗，并指出投反对票的委员更看重楼市走弱与失业上升等下行风险。澳大利亚四大银行随后宣布，自11月13日起将浮动房贷利率上调0.25个百分点。央行下一次议息会议定于12月8日。
Australia's Central Bank Raises Rates to 4.85 Percent, a Fifth Hike This Year and the Highest Since 2008
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85 percent on November 3, effective November 4. It is the central bank's fifth increase of 2026 and takes the rate to its highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. The Monetary Policy Board voted six to three, with three members preferring to leave the target unchanged at 4.60 percent.
In its post-meeting statement, the Board said the data had confirmed that underlying inflation remains broadly based, that capacity pressures appear a little tighter than previously estimated, and that higher fuel prices are being passed through to the prices of other goods and services; inflation is now expected to remain above 3 percent for the coming year, with a growing risk that higher inflation expectations become embedded. Updated forecasts in the Statement on Monetary Policy show inflation not returning to the top of the 2 to 3 percent target range until late 2027, around three quarters later than previously expected. Consumer prices rose 4.3 percent in the year to September, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Governor Michele Bullock said it was unclear what the next move in rates would be, and that the dissenting members placed greater weight on downside risks as the housing market weakened and unemployment rose. Australia's big four banks subsequently announced they would lift variable home loan rates by 0.25 percentage points from November 13. The Board's next meeting is on December 8.
来源：澳大利亚储备银行
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：位于悉尼马丁广场的澳大利亚储备银行总部大楼。Danausi 摄，Wikimedia Commons，公共领域。 / Photo: The Reserve Bank of Australia headquarters at Martin Place, Sydney. Photo by Danausi, Wikimedia Commons, Public domain.
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