美国东海岸决战前夜民调总览：新泽西州长谢里尔领先3.3点、弗吉尼亚州长斯潘伯格领先8.9点、纽约市长马姆达尼领先14.7点
华盛顿，11 月 2 日——美国选民 11 月 3 日星期二将投票选举新泽西州州长、弗吉尼亚州州长与总检察长、纽约市市长。综合民调机构RealClearPolitics 的平均值显示，三地民主党候选人均领先，但新泽西与弗吉尼亚总检察长两场选战仍具悬念。
新泽西州州长选战中，民主党联邦众议员米基·谢里尔在 RealClearPolitics 平均值中领先共和党人杰克·恰塔雷利 3.3个百分点；纳入平均值的全部民调均显示谢里尔领先，其中三家机构的民调仅领先 1 个百分点。分析指出，2021年恰塔雷利在最终平均值中落后时任州长菲尔·墨菲 7.8 个百分点，最终仅以 2.8个百分点落败；若出现类似幅度的摇摆，恰塔雷利仍有胜算，但博彩市场仅给恰塔雷利 17% 的胜算。
弗吉尼亚州州长选战中，前民主党联邦众议员阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格在平均值中领先共和党现任副州长温森·厄尔-西尔斯 8.9个百分点，即使最接近的一家民调也显示斯潘伯格领先 4 个百分点；博彩市场给斯潘伯格 96% 对 5%的胜算。副州长选战中，民主党人加扎拉·哈希米对共和党人约翰·里德的博彩胜算为 92%。总检察长选战则更为胶着：民主党人杰伊·琼斯 9月时在民调中领先 4 至 7 个百分点，此后因其开玩笑称要枪击前州众议院议长托德·吉尔伯特的泄露短信曝光、并道歉后，共和党现任总检察长贾森·米亚雷斯反超，目前在平均值中领先1.6 个百分点；丑闻曝光后的 12 项民调中仅两项未显示米亚雷斯领先（一项打平、一项琼斯领先 2 个百分点），博彩市场为米亚雷斯 55%对 45%。
纽约市市长选战中，民主党候选人、纽约州众议员佐赫兰·马姆达尼在平均值中以 45.8% 对 31.1% 领先前州长安德鲁·库莫 14.7个百分点，共和党候选人柯蒂斯·斯利瓦为 17.3%；博彩市场目前给马姆达尼 94% 的胜算，而库莫的胜算一度曾达 80%。
（来源：RealClearPolling）
East Coast Election-Eve Polling Overview: Sherrill Leads by 3.3 Points in New Jersey, Spanberger by 8.9 in Virginia, Mamdani by 14.7 in New York City
WASHINGTON, November 2 — Voters on Tuesday, November 3, will elect the governor of New Jersey, the governor and attorney general of Virginia, and the mayor of New York City. RealClearPolitics polling averages show Democratic candidates leading in all three places, though the New Jersey governor's race and the Virginia attorney general's race remain competitive.
In New Jersey, Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 3.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average; every poll in the average shows Sherrill ahead, though three polls put her lead at just one point. The analysis notes that in 2021, Ciattarelli trailed then-Governor Phil Murphy by 7.8 points in the final average but lost by only 2.8 points; a similar swing would give Ciattarelli a chance, though betting markets give him only a 17 percent chance of winning.
In Virginia, former Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears by 8.9 points in the average, with even the closest poll showing Spanberger ahead by four points; betting markets favor Spanberger 96 percent to 5 percent. In the lieutenant governor's race, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi has a 92 percent betting chance against Republican John Reid. The attorney general's race is tighter: Democrat Jay Jones led by four to seven points in September polls, but after leaked texts in which he joked about shooting former House Speaker Todd Gilbert surfaced and he apologized, Republican incumbent Jason Miyares moved ahead and now leads by 1.6 points in the average; only two of the 12 polls since the scandal did not show Miyares leading, one tied and one with Jones up two points, with betting markets at 55 percent to 45 percent for Miyares.
In New York City, Democratic candidate and State Assembly member Zohran Mamdani leads former Governor Andrew Cuomo by 14.7 points in the average, 45.8 percent to 31.1 percent, with Republican Curtis Sliwa at 17.3 percent; betting markets now give Mamdani a 94 percent chance, after Cuomo at one point held an 80 percent chance.
(Source: RealClearPolling)
来源：RealClearPolling
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：美国一处投票站外景。 A polling place in the United States. CC BY 2.0，图片来源：Wikimedia Commons。 CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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