财政部下调四季度借款估算至6180亿美元：明年一季度预计借款8000亿美元
美国财政部11月2日在华盛顿公布最新季度借款估算：2026年10月至12月季度，财政部预计发行6180亿美元私人持有净可流通债务，假设12月末现金余额为8500亿美元。这一数字比今年8月公布的估算低100亿美元。
财政部表示，下调主要因为季度初现金余额高于此前假设，部分被预计净现金流走低所抵消。若剔除期初现金余额高于假设这一因素，本季度借款估算实际比8月高240亿美元。
对2027年1月至3月季度，财政部预计借款8000亿美元，假设3月末现金余额为1万亿美元。
刚刚结束的2026年7月至9月季度，财政部实际借款7420亿美元，高于8月估算的7390亿美元，季末现金余额为9840亿美元，也高于此前假设的9500亿美元。财政部称，实际借款高出主要来自季末现金余额高于假设，部分被净现金流高于预期所抵消；剔除现金余额因素，实际借款比8月估算低300亿美元。
与本次估算配套的季度再融资（Quarterly Refunding）细节，将于11月4日周三上午8时30分公布，届时财政部将说明各期限国债的发行安排。（来源：美国财政部）
Treasury Cuts Fourth-Quarter Borrowing Estimate to $618 Billion, Sees $800 Billion in First Quarter of 2027
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of the Treasury on November 2 announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing for the October–December 2026 and January–March 2027 quarters. During the October–December 2026 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $618 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion.
The borrowing estimate is $10 billion lower than announced in August 2026, primarily due to the higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, partially offset by lower projected net cash flows. Excluding the higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $24 billion higher than announced in August.
During the January–March 2027 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $800 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $1.000 trillion.
During the July–September 2026 quarter, Treasury borrowed $742 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $984 billion. In August 2026, Treasury had estimated borrowing of $739 billion and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $950 billion. Treasury said the $4 billion in higher borrowing resulted primarily from the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, offset by higher net cash flows; excluding that cash balance, actual borrowing was $30 billion lower than announced in August.
Additional financing details relating to Treasury's Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, November 4, 2026. (Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury)
来源：美国财政部
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：位于华盛顿的美国财政部大楼暮色外景（资料图）。Wisneyykarin 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: The U.S. Treasury Building in Washington at dusk (file photo). By Wisneyykarin, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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