NBC选前终版民调：民主党以52%对45%领先国会之争，特朗普不支持率达60%
美国2026年中期选举将于11月3日（周二）投票。NBC News 11月1日发布的选前最后一轮全国民调显示，在「希望哪一党控制国会」的问题上，52%的登记选民选择民主党、45%选择共和党，民主党领先7个百分点，较 NBC 上一轮民调扩大2个百分点。众议院全部435个席位与参议院35个席位将在本次选举中改选。
这项民调于10月28日至30日进行，共访问1,000名登记选民，采用电话访谈与短信推送在线问卷两种方式，抽样误差为正负3.1个百分点。民调由民主党背景的民调专家 Jeff Horwitt（Hart Research Associates）与共和党背景的 Bill McInturff（Public Opinion Strategies）联合执行。
民调同时显示，总统特朗普的执政不支持率达60%。不过选民对民主党本身的好感有限：仅29%的受访者对民主党持正面看法，低于对共和党持正面看法的38%。换言之，民主党的领先更多来自选民对现状的不满与制衡执政党的意愿，而非对在野党的好感。
其他机构的选前民调方向一致。Ipsos 于10月22日至26日进行的调查显示，在可能投票的选民中，民主党以53%对44%领先；在经济议题上，仅25%的成年人认可特朗普处理经济的表现、20%认可其应对生活成本的表现，经济管理方面选民以34%对28%更信任民主党。皮尤研究中心9月28日至10月4日的调查则显示，民主党支持者中63%自称「极有投票动力」，高于共和党支持者的46%；44%的登记选民称自己投出的国会选票意在反对特朗普，19%称意在支持特朗普；经济被84%的选民列为「非常重要」的议题。
需要说明的是，全国范围的政党偏好并不直接换算为席位：众议院按435个选区分别选举，参议院按州选举，全国领先幅度能否转化为议会控制权，取决于各选区与各州的选票分布及最终投票率。民调结果将于11月3日投票后由计票揭晓。NBC 民调全文要点见NBC选前终版民调报道（英文）。
关联：中期选举选前终轮民调：民主党在七个参议院战场州六州领先，特朗普支持率38%
Final NBC Poll: Democrats Lead 52% to 45% in Fight for Congress as Trump Disapproval Hits 60%
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, November 3. A final national NBC News poll released on November 1 found that 52% of registered voters prefer Democratic control of Congress, against 45% for Republicans - a seven-point Democratic lead, two points wider than in NBC's previous survey. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot.
The poll was conducted October 28-30 among 1,000 registered voters, using telephone interviews and online questionnaires delivered by text message, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. It was conducted by Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates and Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
The survey also put President Donald Trump's disapproval rating at 60%. Affection for the alternative is limited, however: only 29% of respondents viewed the Democratic Party positively, compared with 38% for Republicans - suggesting the Democratic lead draws more on dissatisfaction and a desire to check the governing party than on enthusiasm for the opposition.
Other final-week surveys point the same way. An Ipsos poll conducted October 22-26 put Democrats ahead 53% to 44% among likely voters; only 25% of adults approved of Trump's handling of the economy and 20% of his handling of the cost of living, and Democrats were preferred on economic management by 34% to 28%. A Pew Research Center survey from September 28 to October 4 found 63% of Democratic backers describing themselves as extremely motivated to vote, against 46% of Republican backers; 44% of registered voters said their congressional vote was a vote against Trump, while 19% saw it as support for him, and 84% rated the economy as very important.
A national party preference does not translate directly into seats: the House is elected across 435 districts and the Senate state by state, so whether the polling lead becomes congressional control depends on the distribution of votes and on turnout. Ballots cast on November 3 will settle the question. Details of the NBC poll are at Final NBC Poll Gives Democrats Seven-Point Lead Before Midterms.
Related: Final Senate Battleground Polls: Democrats Lead in Six of Seven States, Trump at 38%
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：威斯康星州 Madison 一处投票站入口（资料图）。WORT News 摄，CC BY 2.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / A polling place entrance in Madison, Wisconsin (file photo). Photo by WORT News, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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