中期选举选前终轮民调：民主党在七个参议院战场州六州领先，特朗普支持率38%
华盛顿——美国2026年中期选举将于11月3日（周二）举行投票。《纽约时报》与锡耶纳大学（Siena University）11月2日公布的选前最后一轮民调显示，民主党候选人在七个关键参议院战场州中六州领先、一州与共和党候选人基本打平，七州受访的可能选民对总统特朗普的执政支持率为38%。
七州结果依次为：密歇根州民主党候选人 Abdul El-Sayed 以53%对42%领先共和党候选人 Mike Rogers，优势11个百分点，是七州中差距最大的一州，密歇根也是七州中唯一由民主党现任占据的席位；德克萨斯州民主党候选人 James Talarico 以50%对43%领先共和党候选人 Ken Paxton；缅因州民主党挑战者 Troy Jackson 以51%对45%领先共和党现任参议员 Susan Collins；俄亥俄州民主党前参议员 Sherrod Brown 以49%对44%领先共和党现任参议员 Jon Husted；堪萨斯州民主党候选人 Adam Hamilton 以49%对44%领先共和党现任参议员 Roger Marshall；阿拉斯加州民主党候选人 Mary Peltola 以48%对46%微弱领先共和党现任参议员 Dan Sullivan；艾奥瓦州民主党候选人 Josh Turek 以48%对47%与共和党候选人 Ashley Hinson 基本打平。
报告指出，上述领先中有五州是共和党现任占据的席位，其中德克萨斯州与堪萨斯州分别自1988年与1932年以来没有选出过民主党参议员。与9月调查相比，民主党在七州中的六州支持率有所上升：缅因州由共和党领先3个百分点转为民主党领先6个百分点，密歇根州民主党优势由5个百分点扩大到11个百分点，堪萨斯州由打平转为领先5个百分点；阿拉斯加州是民主党唯一支持率回落的州，优势由约7个百分点收窄至约2个百分点。七州受访者中，民主党在生活成本议题上的信任度领先共和党9个百分点，经济与生活成本也是受访者最关心的议题。
全国层面，RealClearPolling 截至10月30日的民调平均显示，民主党在国会普通选票（generic ballot）上以52%对43.1%领先共和党；NBC News 10月28日至30日的调查为民主党52%、共和党45%。无党派机构库克政治报告（Cook Political Report）最新评级将222个众议院选区列为倾向民主党、195个列为倾向共和党，另有18个选区势均力敌。
本届中期选举改选众议院全部435席与参议院35席，选举结果将决定共和党能否在特朗普第二任期后半段继续控制国会。共和党目前以53席对47席控制参议院，民主党需净增4席才能取得多数；若两党各50席，副总统 JD Vance 的决定票将使共和党保持控制。众议院多数门槛为218席。
提前投票方面，据佛罗里达大学选举实验室（University of Florida Election Lab）统计，截至10月31日（周六）已有超过5100万美国人提前投票，超过2022年中期选举4590万的提前投票总数，创中期选举新高。
《纽约时报》/锡耶纳本轮调查于10月23日至11月1日执行，各州访问可能选民610至1215人，抽样误差为正负3.3至4.8个百分点。调查同时显示，过去一个月内才作出决定的选民以9个百分点倾向共和党，民调机构提示临近投票的取向变化仍可能影响多个仅差数个百分点的选区结果。
Final NYT/Siena Polls Before US Midterms: Democrats Lead in Six of Seven Senate Battlegrounds, Trump Approval at 38%
WASHINGTON: The United States holds its 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3. The final round of New York Times/Siena University polls, released on November 2, shows Democratic candidates leading in six of seven key Senate battleground states and effectively tied with Republicans in the seventh, with President Donald Trump's job approval at 38 percent among likely voters across the seven states.
In Michigan, the only Democratic-held seat among the seven surveyed, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 53 percent to 42 percent, an 11-point margin and the largest in the group. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50 percent to 43 percent. In Maine, Democratic challenger Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins 51 percent to 45 percent. In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted 49 percent to 44 percent. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall by the same 49-to-44 margin. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola edges Republican Senator Dan Sullivan 48 percent to 46 percent, while in Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek is effectively tied with Republican Ashley Hinson, 48 percent to 47 percent.
Five of the Democratic leads are in states currently held by Republicans, including Texas and Kansas, which have not elected Democratic senators since 1988 and 1932 respectively. Compared with September surveys, Democrats improved their position in six of the seven states: Maine moved from a three-point Republican lead to a six-point Democratic advantage, Michigan's Democratic lead widened from five points to 11, and Kansas moved from a tie to a five-point Democratic lead. Alaska was the only state where Democrats lost ground, their advantage narrowing from about seven points to about two. Across the seven states, Democrats held a nine-point advantage over Republicans on handling the cost of living, the issue respondents ranked among their top concerns alongside the economy.
Nationally, a RealClearPolling average of surveys conducted through October 30 shows Democrats leading Republicans 52 percent to 43.1 percent on the generic congressional ballot, while an NBC News survey conducted October 28-30 put the gap at 52 percent to 45 percent. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report's latest ratings place 222 House districts in categories favoring Democrats and 195 favoring Republicans, with 18 classified as toss-ups.
All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, and the results will determine whether Republicans retain control of Congress for the remaining two years of Trump's second term. Republicans currently hold the Senate 53 to 47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority; a 50-50 split would leave Republicans in control because Vice President JD Vance can cast tie-breaking votes. A House majority requires 218 seats.
Early voting has already set a midterm record: according to the University of Florida's Election Lab, more than 51 million Americans had voted by Saturday, October 31, surpassing the entire early-vote total of 45.9 million from the 2022 midterms.
The New York Times/Siena polls were conducted from October 23 to November 1, surveying between 610 and 1,215 likely voters in each state, with margins of sampling error ranging from 3.3 to 4.8 percentage points. The surveys also found that voters who made their decisions during the preceding month favored Republicans by nine points, a reminder that late shifts could still matter in races separated by only a few points.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：美国国会大厦西立面与格兰特纪念碑（资料图）。Mike Peel 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / The west front of the U.S. Capitol with the Ulysses S. Grant Memorial in Washington, D.C. (file photo). Photo by Mike Peel, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
