宾夕法尼亚州学龄人口五年缩水逾3%：高龄人口激增，州结构性赤字约50亿美元
宾夕法尼亚州多芬县哈里斯堡市，州独立财政办公室的一份新报告显示：该州学龄人口在截至2025年的五年里缩水逾3%，且今后至2035年的缩减速度还将加快；与此同时，“高龄”人口类别同期增长近10%，今后增速将达18%或更高。
分年龄段看，10至14岁人口预计从2020年的约77.5万人降至2035年的68.4万人；80至84岁人口则预计从2020年的约29.1万人增至2035年的49.6万人。20至64岁劳动年龄人口在最近五年同样减少并预计延续，而这一群体是州税收的主要来源。
报告指出，2027年年初开始新一届两年任期的州议会将面对结构性赤字约50亿美元的州财政图景，人口结构变化将使学校拨款、医疗与养老服务支出的压力进一步加大。联邦基金会首席政策官 Nathan Benefield 表示，老龄人口增长推高医疗补助与长期护理成本，劳动年龄人口减少则压缩收入，报告凸显的趋势意味着立法者必须正视长期的财政挑战。报告数据截至2025年，预测期至2035年。
（来源：The Center Square）
Pennsylvania's School-Age Population Shrinks More Than 3% in Five Years as the Older Population Surges and the Structural Deficit Nears $5 Billion
In Harrisburg, Dauphin County, Pennsylvania, a new report from the state Independent Fiscal Office shows the state's school-age population shrank by more than 3% in the five years ended in 2025 and will shrink at even greater rates through 2035, while the 'advanced age' category grew by nearly 10% over the same period and will keep growing at 18% or more.
By age group, the population aged 10 to 14 is projected to fall from about 775,000 in 2020 to 684,000 in 2035, while those aged 80 to 84 are projected to rise from about 291,000 to 496,000. The working-age population of 20- to 64-year-olds, the source of a large share of state tax revenue, also shrank in the latest five-year period and is expected to keep shrinking.
The report says the Legislature that begins a new two-year session in early 2027 will confront a structural deficit of roughly $5 billion, with demographic change adding pressure on school funding, health care and older-adult services. Nathan Benefield, chief policy officer at the Commonwealth Foundation, said a growing elderly population adds to Medicaid and long-term care costs while a declining working-age population crimps revenue, underscoring the long-term fiscal challenge. The report's data run through 2025, with projections to 2035.
(Source: The Center Square)
来源：The Center Square
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：位于哈里斯堡的宾夕法尼亚州议会大厦。w_lemay 摄，CC BY-SA 2.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: The Pennsylvania State Capitol in Harrisburg. By w_lemay, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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