比利时预算谈判进入冲刺：2029年前须找到约100亿欧元，增值税上调已被否决
比利时联邦政府的预算谈判11月1日进入冲刺阶段。据比利时通讯社（Belga）报道，首相德韦弗（Bart De Wever）10月31日晚放弃召开由核心部长参加的 kern 会议，改以双边磋商推进，先后与部长 Van Peteghem、Prévot 磋商，并可能继续与 Vandenbroucke 会谈；谈判周日继续，新的核心会议希望在周末之后举行。
本轮预算谈判的核心难题是钱从哪里来：到2029年，联邦政府须找到约100亿欧元的节支或增收。背景数字是：比利时2025年财政赤字相当于国内生产总值的5.2%（约332亿欧元），公共债务约为国内生产总值的108%。
已经出局的选项包括把增值税标准税率从21%提高到22%——这一设想已被执政联盟伙伴、法语革新运动党（MR）的 Bouchez 否决。另一个僵持点是职业倦怠津贴的期限问题，这被佛兰德社会党 Vooruit 视为不可退让的底线。
若各方在本轮窗口期仍无法达成协议，2027年预算将按「临时十二分之一」机制应急运行，即每月按上年预算的十二分之一拨付。各方公认的关键时间窗口是11月2日至3日夜间。
Belgium's Budget Talks Enter Final Stretch: €10 Billion Needed by 2029, VAT Rise Ruled Out
Belgium's federal budget negotiations entered their final stretch on November 1. According to the Belga news agency, Prime Minister Bart De Wever dropped a planned "kern" meeting of core ministers on the evening of October 31 and switched to bilateral talks, meeting ministers Van Peteghem and Prévot, with further talks with Vandenbroucke possible. Negotiations continue on Sunday, with a new core meeting hoped for after the weekend.
The central problem is money: by 2029 the federal government must find roughly €10 billion in savings or revenue. The background figures are a 2025 budget deficit of 5.2 percent of GDP (about €33.2 billion) and public debt of around 108 percent of GDP.
Options already ruled out include raising the standard VAT rate from 21 to 22 percent, an idea vetoed by Georges-Louis Bouchez of the francophone liberal MR, a coalition partner. Another sticking point is the duration of the burnout benefit, which the Flemish socialist party Vooruit treats as a red line.
If the parties still cannot agree in this window, the 2027 budget will run on the emergency "provisional twelfths" mechanism, releasing one twelfth of the previous year's budget each month. The night of November 2–3 is widely seen as the decisive window.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：布鲁塞尔大广场。摄影 acediscovery，CC BY，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: The Grand Place in Brussels. Photo by acediscovery, CC BY, via Wikimedia Commons.
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