Redfin分析：七个都会区年底最容易谈到折扣，河滨与坦帕11月初最划算、底特律与迈阿密等到12月中旬
房地产经纪公司Redfin与Home Economics 10月27日发布联合分析：全美有七个都会区的购房折扣高峰不在春季，而在年底，其中加州河滨市（Riverside）、威斯康星州密尔沃基与佛罗里达州坦帕的「最划算时点」在11月初，密歇根州底特律与佛罗里达州劳德代尔堡、迈阿密、西棕榈滩则要等到12月中旬。
这项分析以各都会区历年的成交折扣季节性规律为据，衡量的是成交价相对最初挂牌价的折让（包括卖家降价与买卖双方谈判让步）何时接近季节高峰。全国范围看，折扣通常在初秋见顶、入冬后趋平，但上述七地因本地节奏不同，折扣高峰来得更晚：节日前后看房人数减少，留守买家谈判空间更大，一些挂牌数月的房源卖家也更愿意在年底前成交。
佛罗里达的窗口与「雪鸟」人群节奏有关：退休与季节性居民通常在新年后、当地天气转暖时才大批到来，本地买家在他们抵达前的11月至12月竞争较少；飓风季在初秋结束，也使部分夏季滞销房源在年底出现折让。密尔沃基与底特律则因寒冷市场的销售季较短，卖家把交易拖到深秋乃至初冬才让步。
今年的季节性优势可能更明显：Redfin称全美卖家比买家多63%，为其2013年有记录以来最大的买卖失衡，迈阿密是全美最强的买方市场之一、卖家数量是买家的两倍多，坦帕、西棕榈滩、劳德代尔堡、河滨与底特律同为买方市场；密尔沃基则是全美仅有的五个卖方市场之一，当地买家更需留意季节窗口。
Redfin高级经济学家阿萨德·汗（Asad Khan）提醒，年底购房是选择与价格之间的取舍：新挂牌通常在折扣高峰到来数月前就已见顶，等到11月、12月可挑的房源更少；不应只因日历到了「划算期」就买房，但找到合适房源的买家确实有更大的谈判空间。分析同时列出各都会区新挂牌与新鲜库存的高峰期，供买家在价格与选择之间权衡。
Redfin: Seven Metros Offer Their Best Buyer Deals Late in the Year, Early November in Riverside and Tampa and Mid-December in Detroit and Miami
Early November is typically the best time of year for homebuyers to score a bargain in Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Riverside, California; and Tampa, Florida, while mid-December is the dealmaking sweet spot in Detroit, Michigan, and in Fort Lauderdale, Miami and West Palm Beach, Florida, according to an analysis by Redfin and Home Economics released on October 27.
The analysis, originally completed in April, identifies when discounts off a home's original asking price, achieved through price drops and buyer-seller negotiations, typically approach their seasonal peak in each metro. Nationwide, discounts tend to peak in early fall, but in these seven metros the peak arrives later: homebuying slows near the holidays, leaving sellers with fewer buyers and more motivation to close before year-end, especially on listings that have sat for months.
In Florida, the window is tied to the snowbird calendar: retirees and seasonal residents typically arrive after the new year, so local buyers face less competition in November and December, and hurricane season, which runs through early fall, leaves lingering listings ripe for discounts once it passes. In Milwaukee and Detroit, a short cold-weather selling season pushes the slowdown, and seller concessions, into November and December respectively.
The seasonal advantage may be bigger than usual this year. Redfin says the U.S. market is firmly tilted toward buyers, with 63 percent more sellers than buyers, the biggest imbalance in its records dating back to 2013. Miami is one of the strongest buyer's markets in the nation, with more than twice as many sellers as buyers, and Tampa, West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Riverside and Detroit are also buyer's markets; Milwaukee is one of just five seller's markets in the country.
Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan cautioned that late-year shopping is a tradeoff between selection and savings: new listings typically peak months before the best deals arrive, so buyers who wait may have fewer homes to choose from, and no one should buy just because the calendar says it is deal season, though buyers who find the right home may have room to negotiate.
Redfin analysis of the best time to get a deal
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：美国一处挂牌待售的住宅与土地（历史资料图，牌面电话为旧档号码、请勿拨打）。CC BY 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons（DPLA 藏品）。 / A U.S. home and land listed for sale (archival photo; the phone number on the sign is historical and should not be called). CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (DPLA).
