卢拉连任不到一周：执政联盟为财政紧缩划红线，巴西公共债务已达国内生产总值的82.9%
巴西利亚——巴西总统卢拉（Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva）赢得连任不到一周，他的政府成员和工人党已经开始为可能出台的更严厉财政措施划红线。路透社10月30日报道，机构关系部长 José Guimarães 对记者表示，财政调整这个问题「没有讨论、没有在讨论、在我们党团里也肯定不会讨论」；总统府秘书长 Guilherme Boulos 在社交平台写道，主张削减开支的那套承诺已经输掉了选举，任何调整都只能来自削减国会的预算指定拨款和税收优惠。工人党执行委员会同日发表声明说，控制支出不能以穷人为代价。
投资者原本希望新政府释放信号、着手处理不断上升的公共债务：卢拉任内巴西公共债务已攀升逾11个百分点，达到国内生产总值的82.9%，财政不确定性正推高政府的借贷成本。财政部长 Dario Durigan 表示，政府将争取明年实现更高的实际基本盈余，并计划今年内向国会提交法案，要求决策者正式以基本平衡目标的中点、即相当于国内生产总值0.5%的盈余为目标，而不是取财政框架容忍区间的下限。
分析人士说，市场的反应源于政府缺乏展示如何处理债务的紧迫感。谁来领导财政部、此人是否有足够的政治资本克服内部阻力推行节支，成为外界关注的焦点。卢拉的第四个总统任期将于2027年1月5日开始。
（来源：路透社）
Less Than a Week After Lula's Re-election Win, His Own Camp Draws Red Lines on Fiscal Tightening as Brazil's Public Debt Hits 82.9% of GDP
Brasilia — Less than a week after Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election, members of his government and his Workers Party (PT) are drawing red lines around potential tougher fiscal measures. Reuters reported on October 30 that Institutional Relations Minister José Guimarães told reporters the issue of fiscal adjustment "was not discussed, is not being discussed, and certainly is not being discussed within our caucus." Presidential Secretary-General Guilherme Boulos wrote on social media that the pledge of spending cuts had lost the election, arguing that any adjustment should rely solely on reducing Congress budget earmarks and tax breaks. The PT's executive committee issued a statement the same day saying controls on spending should not come at the expense of the poor.
Investors had been hoping for signs that the new administration would tackle Brazil's rising public debt, which has climbed more than 11 percentage points during Lula's presidency to 82.9 percent of gross domestic product, as fiscal uncertainty drives up government borrowing costs. Finance Minister Dario Durigan said the government will pursue a higher effective primary surplus next year and plans to send legislation to Congress this year requiring policymakers to formally target the midpoint of the primary balance goal — a surplus of 0.5 percent of GDP — rather than the lower end of the fiscal framework's tolerance band.
Analysts say the market reaction stems from the government's lack of urgency in showing how it intends to address the debt. Attention has turned to who will lead the finance ministry and whether that person will have the political capital to overcome internal resistance to spending restraint. Lula's fourth term begins on January 5, 2027.
(Source: Reuters)
来源：路透社
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图片来源：图：巴西总统卢拉。照片 CC BY-SA 4.0，作者 Ricardo Stuckert，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. CC BY-SA 4.0, by Ricardo Stuckert, via Wikimedia Commons.
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