加州州长选战民调：Becerra以61%对34%领先Hilton、领先优势较9月扩大
加州州长选战进入最后冲刺。加州大学伯克利分校政府研究所（Berkeley IGS）10月30日（周五）公布的最新民调显示，在可能投票的选民中，民主党候选人 Xavier Becerra 以61%对34%领先共和党候选人 Steve Hilton，未定者占5%，27个百分点的领先优势比9月时的25个百分点进一步扩大。
这项调查于10月19日至25日以英文与西班牙文在线进行，共访问2,787名登记选民，抽样误差约为正负3个百分点。Becerra 的好感度升至53%，高于9月的48%；Hilton 的好感度为34%，不喜欢他的选民占56%。在被问到谁会赢时，71%的可能选民预计 Becerra 获胜，预计 Hilton 获胜的只有16%。
两党选民最关心的问题大相径庭。全体可能选民中，把「反对特朗普政府的政策」列为首要关切的占40%，排在第一，生活成本可负担性以34%排在第二。在 Becerra 的支持者中，62%把对抗特朗普政策列为首要关切之一，远高于选择降低生活成本的33%。
Hilton 支持者的排序正好相反：减税以49%居首，移民执法占41%，打击犯罪与公共安全占36%，降低生活成本占34%，与 Becerra 支持者中选这一项的比例几乎相同；只有2%的 Hilton 支持者把对抗特朗普政策列入首要关切。
党派结构仍是 Hilton 面对的最大障碍：加州登记选民中民主党人接近共和党人的两倍。两名候选人各获得本党登记选民94%的支持，但 Becerra 在无党派偏好及其他政党选民中以59%对31%领先。他在民调公布的每一个主要地区与人口群体中支持率都不低于50%，在旧金山湾区以72%对23%领先最多；Hilton 最接近的是橙县，以49%对50%仅落后1个百分点。近三分之一的 Hilton 支持者也预计 Becerra 最终会获胜。
Becerra 曾任美国卫生与公众服务部部长、加州总检察长与24年国会议员，在6月初选的两强晋级中以28%居首；Hilton 曾任英国首相卡梅伦的顾问，2017年至2023年主持福克斯新闻节目，初选以24.6%居第二。加州州长选举将于11月3日（周二）投票，投票站开放时间为上午7时至晚8时（太平洋时间）。
California Governor's Race Poll: Becerra Leads Hilton 61% to 34% as His Advantage Widens From September
The California governor's race is in its final stretch. A Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey released on Friday, October 30, found Democrat Xavier Becerra leading Republican Steve Hilton 61% to 34% among likely voters, with 5% undecided — a 27-point advantage, up from a 25-point lead in September.
The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish from October 19 to 25 among 2,787 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Becerra's favorable rating rose to 53%, from 48% in September; Hilton's stood at 34%, with 56% viewing him unfavorably. Asked who would win, 71% of likely voters expected a Becerra victory, compared with 16% who anticipated Hilton becoming governor.
The two camps rank the issues very differently. Across the likely electorate, opposition to the Trump administration's policies ranked first at 40%, followed by affordability at 34%. Among Becerra supporters, 62% put fighting Trump administration policies among their top concerns, nearly twice the 33% who selected reducing the cost of living.
Hilton's supporters offered the opposite order: reducing taxes topped the list at 49%, followed by immigration enforcement at 41% and fighting crime and ensuring public safety at 36%. Lowering the cost of living drew 34%, almost identical to the share among Becerra voters, while only 2% of Hilton supporters selected fighting Trump administration policies.
The partisan math remains Hilton's biggest obstacle, in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one. Each candidate won 94% of voters registered with his own party, but Becerra led 59% to 31% among voters with no party preference or another affiliation. He received at least 50% support in every major region and demographic group reported, leading 72% to 23% in the San Francisco Bay Area; Hilton came closest in Orange County, trailing 50% to 49%. Nearly a third of Hilton's own supporters predicted Becerra would win.
Becerra, a former U.S. health and human services secretary, California attorney general and 24-year congressman, finished first in the June top-two primary with 28%. Hilton, a former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron who hosted a Fox News show from 2017 to 2023, placed second with 24.6%. Californians vote on Tuesday, November 3, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Pacific Time.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：位于 Sacramento 的加利福尼亚州议会大厦（资料图），新任州长将于11月3日选举后在此办公。照片：dllu，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / The California State Capitol in Sacramento (file photo). Photo by dllu, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
