美国第三季度GDP年化增长3.4%：BEA初估高于二季度的2.2%，投资与消费支出领涨
美国商务部经济分析局（BEA）10月29日在华盛顿发布初估数据：美国2026年第三季度（7月至9月）实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算增长3.4%，高于第二季度的2.2%，增速加快。名义GDP按年率增长5.6%。
推动第三季度增长的主要力量是投资、消费者支出和政府支出，出口下降形成部分抵消；进口在GDP核算中为减项，第三季度有所增加。与第二季度相比，第三季度实际GDP加速主要源于投资提速和政府支出由降转升，出口转跌形成部分抵消，进口增幅也大于第二季度。
投资增长主要来自私人库存投资和设备投资。私人库存方面，批发贸易和制造业（均以非耐用品行业为主）贡献最大；设备方面，信息处理设备（主要是计算机及外围设备）领涨。
消费者支出在服务和商品两端均有增长。服务方面，医疗保健（主要是医院和门诊服务）与餐饮住宿（主要是外出就餐和饮料）领涨；商品方面，其他非耐用品（主要是处方药）领涨。
政府支出的增加主要来自联邦政府，其中非国防消费支出领涨。BEA说明，该项走势主要与战略石油储备的原油销售有关：第三季度储备原油销量小于第二季度，在国民经济核算中销量从政府消费支出中扣除，因此销量减少表现为消费支出增加；政府售出的石油会在GDP其他组成部分中反映，对GDP本身没有直接影响。
反映内需强弱的实际私人国内最终销售（消费者支出与私人固定投资之和）第三季度增长4.9%，高于第二季度的4.6%。
价格方面，国内购买价格指数第三季度上涨3.0%，涨幅明显小于第二季度的5.6%；个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数上涨2.1%，第二季度为上涨5.0%；剔除食品和能源的核心PCE价格指数上涨2.5%，第二季度为上涨3.3%。
按季度环比计算，第三季度实际GDP增长0.8%。BEA将于11月25日上午8时30分（东部时间）发布第三季度GDP第二次估算及企业利润数据，初估数值届时可能修订。
U.S. GDP Grew at 3.4% Annual Rate in Third Quarter: BEA Advance Estimate Up From 2.2% in Second Quarter, Led by Investment and Consumer Spending
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), part of the Department of Commerce, released its advance estimate in Washington on October 29: real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2026 (July through September), up from 2.2 percent in the second quarter. Current-dollar GDP increased at an annual rate of 5.6 percent.
The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the third quarter were increases in investment, consumer spending, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Compared with the second quarter, the acceleration primarily reflected an acceleration in investment and an upturn in government spending, partly offset by a downturn in exports, while imports increased more than in the second quarter.
The increase in investment primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment and equipment. Within private inventories, wholesale trade and manufacturing, both led by nondurable goods industries, were the largest contributors; within equipment, information processing equipment, mainly computers and peripheral equipment, led the increase.
Consumer spending rose in both services and goods. Within services, health care, mainly hospitals and outpatient services, and food services and accommodations, mainly purchased meals and beverages, led the increase; within goods, other nondurable goods, mainly prescription drugs, led.
Within government spending, the increase was more than accounted for by federal spending, led by nondefense consumption expenditures. BEA said the pattern mainly reflected sales of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve: sales were smaller in the third quarter than in the second, and because sales are deducted from government consumption expenditures in the national accounts, smaller sales register as an increase in consumption expenditures, with no direct effect on GDP itself.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 4.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with 4.6 percent in the second quarter.
On prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with 5.6 percent in the second quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.1 percent, compared with 5.0 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.5 percent, compared with 3.3 percent.
Real GDP rose 0.8 percent at a quarterly rate. BEA will release the second estimate for the third quarter, together with corporate profits, on November 25 at 8:30 a.m. EST, and the advance figures are subject to revision.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：美国经济分析局（BEA）2026年第三季度实际GDP初估官方图表，显示季度环比年化增速。来源：美国商务部经济分析局 BEA 官方发布（美国政府公共领域） / Chart: BEA official chart for the advance estimate of third-quarter 2026 real GDP. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (public domain).
