Cotality十月观察：全美房屋成交量跌至十年低点 周转率仅3.8%
尔湾 — 房产数据公司 Cotality 10月29日发布十月市场观察：受高利率压制，全美房屋成交量继续下滑。9月成屋成交量同比下降5.4%，8月与9月合计成交量跌至十年来最低水平；全美50个大都会区中有40个成交量下跌，丹佛跌17.0%、华盛顿特区跌12.1%、亚特兰大跌11.0%，纽约市是少数例外，微涨约1%。
更深层的问题是「锁定效应」。全美住房年周转率已降至3.8%，远低于2011至2019年间5.0%的平均水平。Cotality 测算，若周转率回到5%，每年可多出约160万套成交。大量屋主持有利率远低于当前水平的旧贷款，不愿卖房换高利率新贷款：10月30年期房贷平均利率为7.35%，而存量贷款的加权平均利率仅4.33%。
报告同时指出，住房资产本身依然稳固：持有贷款的屋主可动用的净值规模庞大；2010年后发放的可调利率贷款严重拖欠率低于0.5%，约为固定利率贷款的一半。换句话说，这是一个「有资产、没交易」的市场：价格由稀缺供给托住，成交却被利率冻住。市场何时解冻，取决于利率何时明显回落。
Cotality: U.S. Home Sales Slide to a 10-Year Low as Turnover Drops to 3.8%
IRVINE, Calif. — Property data firm Cotality's October market report, released October 29, shows U.S. home sales still sliding under the weight of high borrowing costs. Closed sales fell 5.4 percent year over year in September, pushing combined August and September volumes to their lowest level in a decade. Sales declined in 40 of the 50 largest metropolitan areas — Denver down 17.0 percent, Washington, D.C. down 12.1 percent and Atlanta down 11.0 percent — with New York City a notable exception, up nearly 1 percent.
The deeper issue is lock-in. The U.S. housing turnover rate has dropped to 3.8 percent, well below the 5.0 percent average recorded from 2011 through 2019. Cotality estimates that a return to a 5 percent rate would produce roughly 1.6 million additional home sales a year. Many owners hold mortgages far below today's rates and are unwilling to trade up into costlier loans: 30-year mortgage rates averaged 7.35 percent in October, versus a weighted-average rate of 4.33 percent on outstanding loans.
The report also notes that the asset side remains sound: mortgage holders sit on substantial tappable equity, and serious delinquency on adjustable-rate loans originated after 2010 was below 0.5 percent in mid-2026 — about half the rate for fixed-rate loans. In short, this is a market with equity but no transactions: scarcity props up prices while rates freeze sales. Any thaw depends on a meaningful fall in borrowing costs.
来源：Cotality
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：GSM资料图：美国城市住宅与商业建筑（本站图库）
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