PPIC选前民调：加州40号亿万富翁税提案支持46%、反对52%首次过半，45号反对50%对支持46%、3号支持58%

加州公共政策研究所（PPIC）10月27日发布选前最后一次全州民调：在11月3日投票的14项州提案中，备受关注的40号提案（对资产超过10亿美元者一次性征收5%财富税）支持率降至46%、反对升至52%，反对首次过半；修改《加州环境质量法》的45号提案支持46%、反对50%；把高收入者临时税率永久化的3号提案支持率58%，与9月持平。调查于10月16日至22日进行，访问1,728名加州成年人，其中可能投票者1,086人，可能投票者样本误差为正负3.8个百分点。

PPIC 全州调查主任 Mark Baldassare 说：「自上个月以来，我们看到对40号提案的支持在下降，在民主党人与独立选民中尤其明显。」9月的 PPIC 民调中，40号提案曾以52%支持、46%反对领先，如今支持与反对恰好对调。PPIC 还指出，可能使40号提案即便通过也归于无效的41号、42号反制提案，目前民调表现都好于40号提案本身。州长选举方面，民主党人 Xavier Becerra 以61%比37%领先共和党人 Steve Hilton。

40号提案的攻防是本次加州选举最受关注的战线之一，本站此前已报道支持与反制两方的布局。关联：加州亿万富翁税之战：40号提案拟一次性征收5%资产税，42号提案设「毒丸条款」

11月3日选举日临近，加州选民的邮寄选票已经寄出、提前投票正在进行。PPIC 是总部位于旧金山的无党派非营利智库，其全州民调自1998年以来持续发布。

PPIC Pre-Election Poll: California Prop 40 Billionaire Tax Slips to 46% Yes and 52% No, Prop 45 Trails 46% to 50%, Prop 3 Holds at 58% Yes

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) released its final pre-election statewide survey on October 27: among the 14 state propositions on the November 3 ballot, the closely watched Proposition 40 — a one-time 5 percent tax on taxpayers with assets over $1 billion — has slipped to 46 percent support with 52 percent opposed, the first time a majority has opposed it. Proposition 45, which would modify the California Environmental Quality Act, trails at 46 percent yes to 50 percent no. Proposition 3, which would make temporary tax rates on high earners permanent, holds steady at 58 percent support, unchanged from September. The survey was conducted October 16–22 among 1,728 California adults, including 1,086 likely voters; the margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

"Since last month, we've seen declining support for Prop 40, particularly among Democrats and independents," said Mark Baldassare, director of the PPIC Statewide Survey. In September, PPIC found Prop 40 ahead 52 percent to 46 percent; the yes and no shares have now exactly reversed. PPIC also noted that Propositions 41 and 42, which could effectively nullify Prop 40 even if it passes, are both polling better than the billionaire tax itself. In the governor's race, Democrat Xavier Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton 61 percent to 37 percent.

The fight over Prop 40 is one of the most closely watched contests on California's ballot; GSM earlier reported how supporters and opponents are lining up. Related: California Billionaire-Tax Fight: Prop 40’s One-Time 5% Levy Faces Prop 42 Poison Pill

Mail ballots have been sent to all California voters and early voting is under way ahead of the November 3 election. PPIC is a nonpartisan, nonprofit think tank based in San Francisco; its statewide survey has been published since 1998.

来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）

图片来源：图：位于 Sacramento 的加州议会大厦。Andre m 摄，CC BY-SA 3.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: The California State Capitol in Sacramento. Photo by Andre m, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

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