Realtor.com报告：预制住房新法潜在受益最大的都会区为Hartford、Denver等五地，仅约17%分区土地明文允许预制房园区成最大门槛
Realtor.com 10月26日发布报告，评估今年夏天成为法律的《21世纪通往住房之路法案》（21st Century ROAD to Housing Act）中预制住房条款可能带来的影响：土地成本较低、新建成本较低、入门级房源占比偏低的地区潜在受益最大，但前提是地方分区法规放行。法案多数变更定于明年1月生效，部分条款将视联邦与州层面的落实进度分阶段实施。
法案对预制房行业最关键的变更，是取消每栋预制房必须带永久性钢制拖车底盘的要求，预计可降低材料成本、提供更多设计选择，包括多层住宅。但报告引述 Land Use Labs 的研究指出，全美只有约17%的分区土地明文允许设置预制房园区。Realtor.com 首席经济学家 Danielle Hale 说：「联邦的改变只能打开大门。最终由地方领导人决定这些房子能不能从工厂搬进社区。」她还表示，外观更像传统现场建造住宅的房子，可能较少遭到社区以设计标准和分区规则排斥。
报告按土地相对可负担、新建成本与入门房占比三项标准排名，潜在受益最大的五个都会区依次为：Connecticut 州 Hartford、Colorado 州 Denver、Pennsylvania 州 Allentown、New Mexico 州 Albuquerque 与 Colorado 州 Colorado Springs。Realtor.com 高级经济学家 Joel Berner 说，受益最大的市场未必是最大的市场，机会能否变成新增供应，取决于地方规则是否允许这类住宅「当然准入」、社区是否愿意更新为旧式产品写下的标准。上周，总统特朗普刚签署行政令设立预制住房创新工作组（本站已报道）；SimplyPMG 首席执行官 Jason Madiedo 则表示，行业主要障碍「从来不是房子的成本」，而是地方接纳程度——该产品只在太平洋西北部、亚利桑那州部分地区与中西部部分地区扎下根，多数沿海州兴趣不大。
关联：住房与城市发展部发布下一代预制住房行动计划 取消永久底盘要求后推进七项改革
Realtor.com Report: Hartford and Denver Lead Five Metros Poised to Gain From the Manufactured-Housing Law, as Only About 17% of Zoned Land Expressly Allows Manufactured-Home Parks
A report released by Realtor.com on October 26 assessed which markets stand to benefit most from the manufactured-housing components of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which became law over the summer: areas with relatively affordable land, lower new-construction costs and a low share of starter homes have the most to gain — but only if local zoning laws allow. Most of the changes are slated to take effect in January, though some provisions will be phased in over time depending on federal and state-level implementation.
The law's key change for the manufactured-housing industry is the elimination of the requirement that each prefab home have a permanent steel chassis for towing, which is expected to reduce material costs and provide more design options, including multi-level homes. However, research by Land Use Labs indicates only about 17% of zoned land across the country expressly allows manufactured-housing parks, the report noted. 'But the federal change can only open the door. Local leaders still decide whether these homes can move from the factory to a neighborhood,' said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, who added that a home that looks more like a site-built home may face less resistance from communities that have used design standards and zoning rules to keep manufactured housing out.
The five metros that best fit the criteria were Hartford, Connecticut; Denver, Colorado; Allentown, Pennsylvania; Albuquerque, New Mexico; and Colorado Springs, Colorado, ranked on where land is relatively affordable, what new construction costs and whether an area has a low share of available starter homes. 'Whether that opening turns into new supply will depend on whether local rules allow these homes by right and whether communities are willing to update standards written for an older version of the product,' said Joel Berner, a senior economist at Realtor.com. Last week President Donald Trump also signed an executive order creating a task force on manufactured-housing innovation, which GSM has reported. Jason Madiedo, CEO of SimplyPMG, said the primary obstacle 'has never really been the home's cost' but local acceptance, noting the product took hold in the Pacific Northwest, parts of Arizona and a bit of the Midwest, while most other coastal states have shown less interest.
Related: HUD Unveils Next Generation Manufactured Housing Action Plan After Chassis Rule Change
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：加利福尼亚州 Grass Valley 一栋在建的现代预制住宅（资料图）。摄影：Jim Heaphy（Cullen328），CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / A modern manufactured house under construction in Grass Valley, California (file photo). Photo: Jim Heaphy (Cullen328), CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
