跟进：巴西总统决选：民调机构Datafolha宣布Lula胜选，选举法院已计99.79%区段、Lula以51.76%领先Flávio Bolsonaro

巴西巴西利亚——巴西总统选举第二轮投票10月25日的计票已近全数。据巴西最高选举法院（TSE）计票数据，最新快照显示已处理的投票区段达99.79%，现任总统 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 以51.76%的有效票得票率、64,093,998票领先参议员 Flávio Bolsonaro 的48.24%、59,735,422票，差距为4,358,576票、3.52个百分点。巴西民调机构 Datafolha 已于巴西利亚时间20时46分宣布 Lula 胜选的预测，称其依选举法院已公布计票数据建立的模型判断，落后的候选人已无法追回差距；该预测经《圣保罗页报》（Folha de S.Paulo）报道。Datafolha 的宣布是民调机构的统计预测，并非选举法院的正式确认，最终结果仍以 TSE 公布为准。

当晚的领先曾数度易手：计票恢复公布之初、已计逾5%时，Lula 以51.16%对48.84%领先；已计13.65%时，Flávio Bolsonaro 以50.01%反超；计票推进至47.62%时，Lula 又以50.01%夺回领先；至逾七成半时，Lula 的领先扩大到2.18个百分点，此后随计票推进至近全数，领先进一步扩大到3.52个百分点。若最终结果确认，Lula 将开启其第四个总统任期。

本轮计票此前因最高法院法官 Cristiano Zanin 裁定延长 Bahia 州部分城市的投票时间，选举法院一度暂停公布约两小时，恢复后继续推进。首轮投票中，Flávio Bolsonaro 以47.03%居首、Lula 以45.16%居次，无人过半而进入决选；巴西登记选民约1.587亿人。Flávio Bolsonaro 现年45岁，是因2022年败选后策动政变被判27年监禁的前总统 Jair Bolsonaro 之子。计票尚余0.21%区段未处理，两大阵营对结果的正式表态与选举法院的最终确认，本站将继续跟进。

关联：人物特稿：卢拉胜选，从擦鞋童到四度当选总统——卢拉生平与从政经历

Follow-Up: Datafolha Projects Lula Victory in Brazil Runoff as Electoral Court Count Reaches 99.79%, With Lula at 51.76%

BRASILIA, Brazil — Vote counting in Brazil's presidential runoff on Sunday, October 25 is now nearly complete. The latest snapshot of Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) count shows 99.79% of polling sections processed, with incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 51.76% of valid votes to 48.24% — 64,093,998 votes to 59,735,422, a margin of 4,358,576 votes, or 3.52 percentage points. Brazilian polling institute Datafolha projected at 8:46 p.m. Brasilia time that Lula had won the runoff, saying its election-night model, built on TSE returns grouped by geographic and municipal characteristics, showed the trailing candidate could no longer close the gap; the call was reported by Folha de S.Paulo. Datafolha's projection is a statistical call by a polling institute, not the electoral court's formal certification, and the final result remains subject to the TSE's official declaration.

The lead had changed hands repeatedly during the evening: Lula led 51.16% to 48.84% with just over 5% counted, Flávio Bolsonaro moved ahead with 50.01% at 13.65%, Lula retook the lead at 50.01% with 47.62% counted, and by the three-quarter mark his advantage had grown to 2.18 percentage points, widening further to 3.52 points as the count neared completion. If the final result is confirmed, Lula will begin a fourth presidential term.

Counting had earlier been paused for about two hours after Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered voting hours extended in parts of Bahia state, before resuming. In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro finished first with 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%, with neither clearing a majority. Brazil has about 158.7 million registered voters. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence over a coup plot after his 2022 defeat. With 0.21% of sections still to be processed, GSM will continue to follow the campaigns' formal responses and the electoral court's final confirmation.

Related: Feature — Lula wins: from shoeshine boy to a fourth presidential term, his life and political career

来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）

图片来源：图：巴西总统 Lula（右）2026年2月与俄罗斯总理 Mikhail Mishustin 会面握手（资料照片）。俄罗斯联邦政府（government.ru）发布，CC BY 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons 发布。/ Brazil's President Lula (right) shaking hands with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in February 2026 (file photo). Photo by the Government of the Russian Federation (government.ru), CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

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