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跟进:巴西决选计票逾七成半:Lula以51.09%扩大领先Flávio Bolsonaro,选举法院尚未宣布胜负

2026-10-25 · 世界 · GSM News事件

巴西巴西利亚——巴西总统选举第二轮投票10月25日计票进入后段。据巴西最高选举法院(TSE)计票数据,巴西利亚时间20时48分的快照显示,已处理的投票区段达75.24%,现任总统 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 以51.09%的有效票得票率领先参议员 Flávio Bolsonaro 的48.91%,领先优势较计票近半时扩大;TSE 尚未正式宣布胜负。

当晚的领先已数度易手:计票恢复公布之初、已计逾5%时,Lula 以51.16%对48.84%领先;已计13.65%时,Flávio Bolsonaro 以50.01%反超;计票推进至47.62%时,Lula 又以50.01%夺回领先;至逾七成半时,Lula 的领先扩大到2.18个百分点。民调机构 AtlasIntel 首席执行官 Andrei Roman 当晚对路透社表示,依计票走势判断 Lula 将连任——这是民调机构的判断,并非选举法院的官方宣布。

本轮计票此前因最高法院法官 Cristiano Zanin 裁定延长 Bahia 州部分城市的投票时间,选举法院一度暂停公布约两小时,恢复后继续推进。首轮投票中,Flávio Bolsonaro 以47.03%居首、Lula 以45.16%居次,无人过半而进入决选;巴西登记选民约1.587亿人。Flávio Bolsonaro 现年45岁,是因2022年败选后策动政变被判27年监禁的前总统 Jair Bolsonaro 之子;Lula 则寻求其第四个总统任期。计票仍在继续,最终结果以 TSE 公布为准。

Follow-Up: Lula Widens Brazil Runoff Lead to 51.09% Over Flávio Bolsonaro With Over 75% of Sections Counted

BRASILIA, Brazil — Vote counting in Brazil's presidential runoff entered its final stretch on Sunday, October 25. A snapshot of Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) count at 8:48 p.m. Brasilia time, with 75.24% of polling sections processed, put incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead with 51.09% of valid votes against 48.91% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a wider margin than at the halfway point of the count. The TSE has not formally declared a winner.

The lead had changed hands repeatedly during the evening: Lula led 51.16% to 48.84% with just over 5% counted, Flávio Bolsonaro moved ahead with 50.01% at 13.65%, Lula retook the lead at 50.01% with 47.62% counted, and by the three-quarter mark his advantage had grown to 2.18 percentage points. Andrei Roman, CEO of pollster AtlasIntel, told Reuters during the evening that the count pointed to Lula being re-elected — a pollster's assessment, not an official declaration by the electoral court.

Counting had earlier been paused for about two hours after Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered voting hours extended in parts of Bahia state, before resuming. In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro finished first with 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%, with neither clearing a majority. Brazil has about 158.7 million registered voters. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence over a coup plot after his 2022 defeat; Lula is seeking a fourth presidential term. Counting continues, and the final result will be the one published by the TSE.

来源:GSM·美国(原文链接)

图片来源:图:位于巴西利亚的巴西总统府高原宫(Palácio do Planalto)(资料照片)。Senado Federal 摄,CC BY 2.0,经 Wikimedia Commons 发布。/ The Palácio do Planalto presidential palace in Brasília, Brazil (file photo). Photo by Senado Federal, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

本事件进展Story Timeline
  1. 2026-10-06 08:45巴西大选首轮爆冷:博索纳罗之子弗拉维奥意外胜出,10月25日决战卢拉
  2. 2026-10-13 09:39决选首份Datafolha民调:弗拉维奥有效票52%对48%领先卢拉
  3. 2026-10-17 00:57巴西总统决选10月25日举行 弗拉维奥·博索纳罗承诺2000亿雷亚尔财政调整、称不动社会支出
  4. 2026-10-18 18:18巴西总统决选首场电视辩论今晚圣保罗登场 卢拉与 Flavio Bolsonaro 正面对决
  5. 2026-10-18 19:49跟进:巴西决选首场电视辩论交锋激烈 卢拉与Flavio Bolsonaro互指涉案 安全与经济成焦点
  6. 2026-10-19 00:44巴西总统决选首场电视辩论:卢拉与弗拉维奥·博索纳罗互指腐败 10月25日投票
  7. 2026-10-21 07:40跟进:巴西总统决选民调收窄:弗拉维奥·博索纳罗45%对44%领先卢拉,电视辩论后首份Quaest民调差距在误差范围内
  8. 2026-10-25 09:40跟进:巴西决选今日投票:卢拉与弗拉维奥·博索纳罗势均力敌,谁胜出都将改写地区格局
  9. 2026-10-25 14:40跟进:巴西总统决选投票延长2小时:最高法院法官下令全国延至19时,计票公布暂停
  10. 2026-10-25 16:19跟进:巴西决选计票恢复公布:已计逾5%选票,卢拉以51.16%对48.84%领先Flávio Bolsonaro
  11. 2026-10-25 16:52跟进:巴西决选计票近半:Lula以50.01%微弱领先Flávio Bolsonaro,领先优势两度易手
  12. 2026-10-25 17:05跟进:巴西决选计票逾七成半:Lula以51.09%扩大领先Flávio Bolsonaro,选举法院尚未宣布胜负本篇
  13. 2026-10-25 17:20跟进:巴西总统决选:民调机构Datafolha宣布Lula胜选,选举法院已计99.79%区段、Lula以51.76%领先Flávio Bolsonaro
  14. 2026-10-25 17:50跟进:巴西选举法院宣布Lula赢得总统决选:已计99.86%区段得票51.76%,领先Flávio Bolsonaro逾436万票
  15. 2026-10-25 17:55卢拉胜选:从擦鞋童到四度当选总统,巴西总统卢拉生平与从政经历
  16. 2026-10-25 18:50跟进:Lula赢得巴西总统决选后多国领导人致贺:墨西哥总统Claudia Sheinbaum称「巴西人民赢了」
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