AARP/Gotham民调：Mamdani以43.2%领跑纽约市长选战，若Sliwa退选差距缩至误差范围
据CBS News New York报道，AARP纽约州分会与 Gotham Polling & Analytics 10月20日公布的一项新民调显示，民主党候选人佐赫兰·马姆达尼（Zohran Mamdani）以43.2%的支持率在纽约市长选战中保持两位数领先；以独立候选人身份参选的前州长安德鲁·库默（Andrew Cuomo）以28.9%位居第二，共和党候选人柯蒂斯·斯利瓦（Curtis Sliwa）以19.4%排名第三，另有8.4%的选民尚未决定或支持其他候选人。这项民调在两天内访问了1,040名可能选民，误差范围为正负4.0个百分点。
民调还显示，若斯利瓦退选、选战收窄为两人对决，马姆达尼将以44.6%对40.7%领先库默，差距落在误差范围之内，届时仍有近15%的选民未定；若退选的是库默，马姆达尼将以46.8%对31.5%领先斯利瓦。
但斯利瓦明确表示不会退选：“我不会退选。一人一票，这才是决定选举的方式。”库默上周曾表示，斯利瓦参选会妨碍其击败马姆达尼，本周一却又在福克斯新闻上改口称斯利瓦“无关紧要”。
民调同时发现，尚未决定的选民中78%在50岁以上，这个最可靠的投票群体成为两大阵营最后冲刺争夺的焦点。被问及最关心的问题时，63.6%的选民选择生活成本，48.6%选择公共安全，38.9%选择住房负担能力。随着提前投票即将开始，选战进入最后两周。
关联：纽约市长Mamdani发布西语短片讲解遇ICE时的权利：多名共和党议员批评其帮人规避执法
来源：GSM·美国
AARP/Gotham Poll: Mamdani Leads NYC Mayoral Race at 43.2%, but Lead Shrinks to Margin of Error if Sliwa Drops Out
A new poll released on October 20 by AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics shows Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani leading the New York City mayoral race with 43.2% support, followed by former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, at 28.9%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 19.4%, with 8.4% undecided or preferring another candidate, according to CBS News New York. The survey of 1,040 likely voters, conducted over two days, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
The race tightens sharply in a two-way matchup: if Sliwa dropped out, Mamdani would lead Cuomo 44.6% to 40.7%, a gap within the margin of error, with nearly 15% undecided. If Cuomo were the one to drop out, Mamdani would lead Sliwa 46.8% to 31.5%.
Sliwa has flatly refused to quit. “I'm not dropping out,” he said. “One person, one vote. That's how we determine elections.” Cuomo had said last week that Sliwa's continued campaign would hinder his chances of defeating Mamdani, but on Monday he said on Fox News that Sliwa is “irrelevant.”
The poll also found that 78% of undecided voters are age 50 or older, a bloc both campaigns are courting in the final stretch. Asked about their top concerns, 63.6% of voters named the cost of living, 48.6% public safety and 38.9% housing affordability. With early voting about to begin, the race is entering its final two weeks.
Source: GSM · America
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：马姆达尼在纽约法拉盛街头竞选（资料图）。照片：InformedImages，CC BY 4.0，取自 Wikimedia Commons。Photo: Zohran Mamdani campaigning in Flushing, New York (file photo). Photo: InformedImages, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
