AP分析：决定参议院控制权多州提前投票激增 全国已投逾1300万张
据美联社对提前投票数据的分析，在距离11月3日中期选举日还有两周之际，多个预计将决定美国参议院控制权的州，提前投票量较2022年上届中期选举同期大幅上升。全国范围内，邮寄投票与提前现场投票合计已投出超过1300万张选票，高于2022年同期的约900万张。
分州看，德克萨斯州（德州）提前投票量同比增加74%，已投选票接近100万张，而2022年同期约为55万张；堪萨斯州提前投票人数超过5.5万人，是2022年同期2.7万人的两倍多；缅因州增加39%；北卡罗来纳州与俄亥俄州的增幅也都超过30%，其中俄亥俄州比2022年同期多投约15.6万张。美联社同时指出，增幅也部分源于少数州扩大了提前投票机会、以及更多州公开了相关数据。
民主党正试图在上述各州翻转共和党占据的参议院席位；美联社分析显示，在其中多数州，共和党人在提前投票者中所占份额低于2022年。共和党目前以53比47控制参议院。堪萨斯州方面，特朗普总统2024年曾以16个百分点的优势赢下该州，共和党参议员 Roger Marshall 正对决民主党人 Adam Hamilton，共和党方面已向该州投入近1200万美元竞选资金，特朗普本周一也在该州举行集会。德州方面，民主党人 James Talarico 与共和党州总检察长 Ken Paxton 角逐现任共和党参议员 John Cornyn 留下的席位，Paxton 此前在党内初选决选中击败 Cornyn。缅因州方面，连任五届的共和党参议员 Susan Collins 对决民主党人 Troy Jackson。俄亥俄州参议院选战总支出预计接近5亿美元（据 AdImpact 统计），该州今年起取消了邮寄选票送达的宽限期。
也有竞争州提前投票未见增长：密歇根州与佐治亚州的提前投票总量仍高，但与2022年大致持平；爱荷华州同比下降约6%。美联社在分析中提到，对特朗普关税政策的不满、持续高企的生活成本以及伊朗战争推高的汽油与柴油价格，给共和党带来政治压力。中期选举通常有利于不执掌白宫的一方；2022年民主党执政，本届则由共和党同时控制白宫与国会两院，形势与上届不同。
AP Analysis: Early Voting Surges in States Deciding Senate Control, With Over 13 Million Ballots Cast Nationwide
Early voting is running well ahead of the last midterms in many of the states expected to decide control of the U.S. Senate, according to an Associated Press analysis of advance ballots cast through Tuesday, two weeks before the November 3 midterm elections. Nationally, more than 13 million mail-in and early in-person votes have been cast, compared with about 9 million at the same point in 2022.
In Texas, early voting is up 74% from the same point in 2022, with ballots cast reaching nearly 1 million, up from roughly 550,000. Kansas has more than doubled its early turnout, with more than 55,000 ballots cast versus about 27,000 in 2022. Maine is up 39%, and North Carolina and Ohio have each seen increases of more than 30%, with Ohio casting about 156,000 more ballots than in 2022. The AP noted the increase also reflects a few states that expanded early voting opportunities and others that made more data available since the last midterms.
Democrats are trying to flip Republican-held Senate seats in each of those states, and in most of them Republicans account for a smaller share of advance voters than they did in 2022, the analysis found. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. In Kansas, a state President Donald Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton; Republicans have put close to $12 million into the state, and Trump held a rally there on Monday. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico and Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton are competing for the seat held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in a primary runoff. In Maine, five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson. Total spending on the Ohio Senate race will reach close to $500 million, according to AdImpact, and Ohio has eliminated its grace period for receiving mail ballots since 2022.
Advance voting has not risen everywhere: totals in Michigan and Georgia are high but similar to four years ago, and early voting in Iowa is down about 6%. The AP pointed to dissatisfaction with Trump's tariffs, the persistently high cost of living, and high gas and diesel prices caused by the Iran war as sources of political blowback against Republicans. Midterm elections typically favor the party out of power in Washington; Republicans now control the White House and both chambers of Congress, a different environment from 2022, when Democrats were in charge.
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图片来源：美国一处提前投票站外竞选标牌资料图。照片：Edward Kimmel 摄，CC BY-SA 2.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Campaign signs outside a U.S. early voting location (file photo). Photo: Edward Kimmel, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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