田纳西州长选战民调分歧明显：无党派候选人哈特利成最大变量
田纳西州长选战出现少见的民调分歧。据 Nashville Banner 10月21日报道，本周公布的两份新民调结论相差悬殊：Spry Strategies 10月10日至16日对635名可能选民的调查显示，共和党候选人、联邦参议员 Marsha Blackburn 以约44%领先民主党州众议员 Jerri Green 的32%，无党派候选人 David Hatley 约12%；而 Green 竞选团队公布的民调则显示 Blackburn 仅以不到36%对34%微弱领先，Hatley 升至约19%。
两份民调的分歧，与9月 Beacon Center 民调显示 Blackburn 以55%对34%大幅领先也形成对照。Hatley 是东田纳西商人，自称保守派，因有犯罪记录未能参加共和党初选，转以无党派身份参选。范德堡大学民调共同主任 John Geer 提醒，两份民调都有缺陷，选民应谨慎看待；他同时指出，Blackburn 在两份民调中都未过半。Blackburn 团队回应称她将成为下任州长。
田纳西提前投票已经开始，选举日为11月3日，接替任期届满的州长 Bill Lee。
Tennessee Governor's Race Polls Diverge Sharply; Independent Hatley a Wild Card
Tennessee's governor's race has produced an unusual polling split. Two surveys released this week point in very different directions, the Nashville Banner reported on October 21. A Spry Strategies poll of 635 likely voters conducted October 10-16 showed Republican U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn leading Democratic State Representative Jerri Green about 44% to 32%, with independent David Hatley near 12%. A poll released by Green's campaign, by contrast, showed Blackburn ahead only narrowly, under 36% to 34%, with Hatley up to about 19%.
The gap also contrasts with a September Beacon Center poll that had Blackburn up 55% to 34%. Hatley, an East Tennessee businessman who calls himself a conservative, was barred from the Republican primary because of a criminal record and is running as an independent. Vanderbilt University poll co-director John Geer cautioned that both new polls have flaws and voters should view them skeptically, while noting Blackburn is under 50% in both. Her campaign responded that she will be the next governor.
Early voting is underway in Tennessee, with Election Day on November 3 to succeed term-limited Governor Bill Lee.
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图片来源：图：田纳西州议会大厦（Nashville）。摄影：w_lemay，CC BY-SA 2.0（Wikimedia Commons）。Photo: the Tennessee State Capitol in Nashville. Photo by w_lemay, CC BY-SA 2.0 (Wikimedia Commons).
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