财报前瞻：IBM三季度业绩周三盘后揭晓：预期每股收益2.87美元、营收168.4亿美元，软件与红帽增长受关注
国际商业机器公司（IBM）定于当地时间周三（10月21日）美股盘后公布2026年第三季度业绩，并于美东时间下午5时举行业绩电话会。财报数据尚未公布：Zacks一致预期为每股收益2.87美元、营收168.4亿美元；FactSet口径的预期为每股收益2.86美元、营收168.2亿美元，对应营收同比增长约3%。
去年同期，IBM营收为163.3亿美元、每股收益为2.65美元。今年二季度，IBM每股收益为2.93美元、与分析师预期持平，营收为171.6亿美元、同比增长1.1%，但低于预期的174.6亿美元。过去四个季度，IBM三次超出盈利预期，平均盈利意外为正4.6%。
本次财报的看点集中在软件板块：包含红帽（Red Hat）与超级智能产品的软件业务被视为公司主要增长引擎，咨询业务需求能否企稳同样受到关注。首席执行官Arvind Krishna此前表示，二季度部分被推迟的交易并非源于需求不足，其中约三分之一已在三季度的头几周完成签约；摩根士丹利在10月14日的前瞻报告中指出，二季度递延的订单将在三季度确认收入，基础设施板块的服务器、存储与磁带硬件需求强劲，也对当季业绩形成支撑。
此外，投资者将关注自由现金流与全年指引是否更新。期权市场定价显示，财报公布后IBM股价可能出现约7%至8%的波动。摩根士丹利维持对IBM的中性（Equal-Weight）评级，并将目标价由190美元上调至238美元。
Earnings Preview: IBM to Unveil Third-Quarter Results After Wednesday's Close, With Analysts Expecting EPS of $2.87 on Revenue of $16.84 Billion as Software and Red Hat Growth Draw Focus
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results after the U.S. market close on Wednesday, October 21, with an earnings call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The results have not yet been published. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is $2.87 a share on revenue of $16.84 billion, while FactSet-based estimates put earnings at $2.86 a share on revenue of $16.82 billion, implying revenue growth of about 3% from a year earlier.
A year ago, IBM reported revenue of $16.33 billion and earnings of $2.65 a share. In the second quarter of 2026, IBM earned $2.93 a share, matching estimates, on revenue of $17.16 billion, up 1.1% year over year but below the $17.46 billion expected. Over the trailing four quarters, IBM has beaten earnings estimates three times, with an average surprise of 4.6%.
Attention centers on the software segment, including Red Hat and IBM's super intelligence offerings, which analysts view as the company's main growth engine, and on whether consulting demand is stabilizing. Chief Executive Arvind Krishna has said that deals which slipped from the second quarter reflected delays rather than weak demand, and that about one-third of them closed in the first weeks of the third quarter. Morgan Stanley's October 14 preview said those deferred deals would be recognized as third-quarter revenue, alongside strong infrastructure demand for servers, storage and tape hardware.
Investors will also watch free cash flow and any update to full-year guidance. Options traders are pricing a post-earnings move of roughly 7% to 8%. Morgan Stanley maintained an Equal-Weight rating on IBM while raising its price target to $238 from $190.
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图片来源：IBM位于纽约州阿蒙克的全球总部大楼资料图。照片：Treesmittenex 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经维基共享资源。 / File photo: IBM's global headquarters in Armonk, New York. Photo by Treesmittenex, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
- 2026-10-21 00:59财报前瞻：IBM三季度业绩周三盘后揭晓：预期每股收益2.87美元、营收168.4亿美元，软件与红帽增长受关注本篇
- 2026-10-21 17:20IBM三季度营收171亿美元增5%：软件收入增8%领跑，公司上调全年自由现金流预期
