韩国央行维持基准利率3.00%不变 连续两次加息后暂停 行长称将维持紧缩立场至通胀回落至目标
首尔——韩国银行（中央银行）10 月 22 日宣布，货币政策委员会决定将基准利率（七天期回购利率）维持在 3.00% 不变。据《华尔街日报》报道，这项决定获得委员会全体一致通过，并与该报调查的全部 23 位经济学家预期一致；路透社调查的 34 位分析师也全部预期维持不变。
这是韩国银行在 7 月和 8 月连续两次各加息 25 个基点（由 2.50% 升至 2.75%、再升至 3.00%）之后首次暂停。据路透社报道，7 月、8 月的连续加息是该行三年多来首次连续加息。在此之前，行长申铉松曾表示倾向于渐进的紧缩节奏，并于 10 月 13 日在国际货币基金组织一场活动中重申，在通胀收敛至目标之前政策将保持紧缩。
通胀方面，韩国整体消费者价格 9 月同比上涨 2.9%，低于 8 月的 3.1%，仍高于央行 2% 的目标；剔除食品与能源的核心通胀为 2.8%。韩国银行预计今年整体与核心通胀均值分别为 2.7% 和 2.5%，与 8 月预测一致。出口方面，据路透社报道，受全球超级智能支出推动，韩国今年 1 至 9 月出口额首次突破 8,000 亿美元；《华尔街日报》称，9 月单月出口首次超过 1,200 亿美元，半导体出货同比增长逾两倍、创历史新高。
申铉松在会后记者会上表示，后续加息的时机与步伐将取决于后续公布的经济数据，央行将维持紧缩政策立场直至通胀收敛至目标。他还表示，今年经济增长预计将显著高于 8 月时 3.3% 的预测（5 月预测曾为 2.6%），修订后的预测将在 11 月会议上公布。据亚洲经济新闻（Aju Press）报道，申铉松将此次按兵不动形容为先前「先行措施的成果」，并称连同 8 月会议上「用锄头而非棍棒解决问题」的表述，意指提前行动避免了问题扩大。
路透社调查显示，分析师普遍预期韩国银行本轮加息的终端利率为 3.50%，并预计 11 月与 2027 年第一季度各再加息一次。韩国银行定于下周公布第三季度国内生产总值数据。
Bank of Korea Holds Benchmark Rate at 3.00%, Pausing After Back-to-Back Hikes; Governor Says Tight Stance Will Stay Until Inflation Converges to Target
SEOUL — The Bank of Korea (BOK) announced on October 22 that its Monetary Policy Board had voted to keep the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate unchanged at 3.00%. The decision was unanimous, according to The Wall Street Journal, and matched the expectations of all 23 economists surveyed by the Journal; all 34 analysts in a Reuters survey had also forecast no change.
The hold follows quarter-point hikes in July and August, which took the rate from 2.50% to 2.75% and then to 3.00%. The July and August moves were the central bank's first back-to-back increases in more than three years, Reuters reported. Governor Shin Hyun-song had previously said a gradual pace of tightening was preferred, and reiterated at an International Monetary Fund event on October 13 that policy would remain restrictive until inflation converges to its target.
Headline consumer inflation slowed to 2.9% in September from 3.1% in August, remaining above the bank's 2% target, while core inflation edged down to 2.8%. The BOK expects headline and core inflation to average 2.7% and 2.5% this year, in line with its August forecasts. On exports, shipments from January to September topped $800 billion for the first time, driven by global artificial-intelligence spending, according to Reuters; the Journal reported that September exports alone topped $120 billion for the first time, with semiconductor shipments more than tripling from a year earlier to a record high.
At a press conference after the meeting, Shin said the timing and pace of further rate increases would depend on incoming economic data, and that the central bank would maintain a tight policy stance until inflation converges toward its target. He said growth this year is expected to significantly exceed the August forecast of 3.3%, up from 2.6% in May, and that revised forecasts would be announced at the November meeting. According to Aju Press, Shin described the hold as the "fruit of proactive measures," referring back to his August remark that the bank had been able to prevent problems "with a hoe rather than a stick."
Analysts in the Reuters survey saw the BOK's terminal rate at 3.50%, pricing in one hike in November and another in the first quarter of 2027. The central bank is scheduled to release third-quarter GDP data next week.
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GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
- 2026-10-21 22:29韩国央行维持基准利率3.00%不变 连续两次加息后暂停 行长称将维持紧缩立场至通胀回落至目标本篇
- 2026-10-22 00:03跟进：韩国央行决议后市场股债分化 KOSPI与KOSDAQ双双跌逾3% 行长称通胀预计2027年才达标、利率明年或保持3%以上
