首例预测市场内幕下注刑事案将开审：美军士兵被控借马杜罗突袭机密在Polymarket赢逾40万美元
美国陆军特种部队军士长 Gannon Ken Van Dyke 被控利用抓捕委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗行动的机密信息，在预测市场平台 Polymarket 下注获利逾 40 万美元。司法部表示，这是美国首例针对预测市场的内幕交易刑事起诉。10 月 7 日，纽约南区联邦地区法官 Margaret Garnett 就辩方提出的驳回起诉动议举行听证，裁决尚未作出；本案审判排定于 12 月 7 日开庭。
现年 38 岁的 Van Dyke 是驻北卡罗来纳州 Fort Bragg 的现役军人，参与了代号「绝对决心行动」（Operation Absolute Resolve）的策划与执行。今年 1 月 3 日，美军在加拉加斯的突袭中抓获马杜罗夫妇。据司法部与法庭文件，Van Dyke 于 2025 年 12 月 8 日就相关行动签署保密协议，12 月 26 日使用 VPN 开设 Polymarket 账户，随后在 12 月 27 日至 1 月 2 日之间共下注 13 笔、约 33,034 美元，押注「马杜罗在 1 月 31 日前下台」等多项与委内瑞拉局势相关的合约。行动公开后，这批下注为他带来 409,881 美元获利。检方还指控他事后要求平台删除其账户，并经海外加密货币账户转移资金，以掩盖资金来源。
Van Dyke 面临三项违反《商品交易法》的指控，以及电信诈骗、非法货币交易各一项，最高刑期合计可达 60 年。他已对所有指控作无罪答辩，目前以 25 万美元保释在外。商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）另行對他提起民事诉讼，该案已暂缓至刑事案件审结。
纽约南区联邦检察官 Jay Clayton 在今年 4 月宣布起诉时表示，被告涉嫌利用敏感军事行动的机密信息，就该行动本身的时间与结果下注牟利，「这明显是内幕交易，违反联邦法律」。代理司法部长 Todd Blanche 当时也表示，军人受托保管机密信息，是为了尽可能安全有效地完成任务，法律禁止将其用于个人牟利。
辩方在 7 月 31 日提交的驳回动议中主张：Polymarket 上的事件合约不属于《商品交易法》规范的「掉期」（swap），机密军事信息也不构成电信诈骗罪中的「财产」。检方 8 月提交反对意见，并于 9 月 30 日致函法院，主张二元事件合约依法属于掉期。Garnett 法官对驳回动议的裁决，将决定本案是否按期进入审判。
First Prediction-Market Insider-Betting Case Heads to Trial: U.S. Soldier Accused of Winning Over $400,000 on Polymarket With Maduro Raid Secrets
U.S. Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke is accused of using classified information about the operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro to win more than $400,000 on the prediction market Polymarket. The Justice Department says it is the first criminal insider-trading prosecution involving a prediction market. On October 7, U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett in Manhattan heard arguments on the defense motion to dismiss the indictment; her ruling is pending, and the trial is scheduled to begin on December 7.
Van Dyke, 38, is an active-duty soldier stationed at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, who took part in planning and carrying out Operation Absolute Resolve, the January 3 raid in Caracas that captured Maduro and his wife. According to the Justice Department and court filings, Van Dyke signed a nondisclosure agreement covering the operation on December 8, 2025, opened a Polymarket account using a VPN on December 26, and between December 27 and January 2 placed 13 bets totaling about $33,034 on contracts including whether Maduro would be out of power by January 31. After the raid became public, the bets returned $409,881 in profit. Prosecutors also allege that he later asked the platform to delete his account and moved the proceeds through overseas cryptocurrency accounts to conceal their origin.
Van Dyke faces three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, one count of wire fraud and one count of an unlawful monetary transaction, carrying a combined maximum potential sentence of 60 years. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges and is free on a $250,000 bond. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has brought a parallel civil case against him, which has been stayed pending the outcome of the criminal proceeding.
Announcing the charges in April, U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton of the Southern District of New York said the defendant allegedly used classified information about a sensitive military operation to bet on the timing and outcome of that very operation to turn a profit, adding: "That is clear insider trading and is illegal under federal law." Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said at the time that service members are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their missions as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using it for personal financial gain.
In a July 31 motion to dismiss, the defense argues that event contracts traded on Polymarket are not "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, and that classified military information is not "property" for wire-fraud purposes. Prosecutors opposed the motion in August and wrote to the court on September 30 arguing that binary event contracts are swaps under the law. Judge Garnett's ruling on the motion will determine whether the case proceeds to trial as scheduled.
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图片来源：位于曼哈顿的 Daniel Patrick Moynihan 联邦法院大楼，本案在此审理。照片：Ken Lund 摄，CC BY-SA 2.0，经维基共享资源／The Daniel Patrick Moynihan U.S. Courthouse in Manhattan, where the case is being heard. Photo: Ken Lund, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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