英国失业率意外降至4.7%为一年多最低：职位空缺却跌至五年新低69.1万个分析师称英格兰银行11月加息几成定局
伦敦——英国国家统计局（Office for National Statistics，ONS）周二公布的数据显示，尽管职位空缺数量再度下滑，英国失业率仍降至一年多来的最低水平。截至8月的三个月，英国失业率为4.7%，低于截至7月三个月的4.9%，为自截至2025年7月的三个月以来的最低水平，此次下降出乎市场预料。更及时的数据显示，在职员工人数在8月至9月间增加约13,000人，高于7月至8月间经修正的1,000人增幅。这一数字扭转了此前数月员工人数持续下降的局面，但国家统计局强调，该数据为初步估计、很可能被修正。工资方面，截至8月的三个月，不含奖金的平均常规工资年增长率升至3.7%，高于此前三个月的3.5%；经消费者价格指数（CPI）通胀调整后，实际工资同比高出0.8%。但包含奖金的总薪酬增长率降至3.7%，为近六年来的最低水平。与此同时，企业招聘广告数量持续萎缩，小型企业尤其明显地收缩招聘。国家统计局估计，截至9月的三个月，职位空缺减少21,000个，降至691,000个的五年新低，为今年年初以来的最大降幅。国家统计局劳动力市场统计副主任戴维·弗里曼（David Freeman）说：「尽管2026年劳动力市场整体大体持平，最新季度数据显示就业率小幅上升、失业率小幅下降。在职员工人数同期仍略有下降，不过最近一个月的数据表明这一趋势可能开始趋稳。职位空缺出现了今年年初以来的最大降幅，主要集中在小型企业，它们称劳动力成本上升是一个关键因素。常规工资增长保持相对稳定，但包括奖金在内的总薪酬增速已降至近六年来的最低水平。」德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）英国首席经济学家桑杰·拉贾（Sanjay Raja）表示，英国就业市场正在企稳的迹象对财政大臣约翰·希利（John Healey）而言是「好消息」。他说：「企业在招聘上正慢慢走出困境，更多的就业者将意味着更多的税收。」荷兰国际集团（ING）发达市场经济学家詹姆斯·史密斯（James Smith）说：「在经历了长时间的消耗之后，有初步迹象表明就业正在企稳。酒店业——一个关键的疲弱领域——数月来首次录得小幅增长，此前它受到去年最低工资大幅上调与加税组合的严重冲击。这些数字容易出现相当幅度的修正，但它确实与一些招聘调查发出的信号一致，即就业开始出现转机。」不过，专家表示，最新数据强化了英格兰银行（Bank of England）可能在11月加息的预期。RSM UK首席经济学家托马斯·皮尤（Thomas Pugh）说：「对英格兰银行而言，更强的经济与企稳的劳动力市场意味着低增长与高通胀之间不再有权衡取舍。今晨的数据意味着11月加息现在看来极有可能，并且明年可能至少再跟进一次。」
UK Unemployment Unexpectedly Falls to 4.7%, Lowest in Over a Year, as Vacancies Slide to a Five-Year Low of 691,000; Analyst Says November Bank of England Hike Now Looks Exceedingly Likely
London — The UK's unemployment rate has fallen to the lowest level in more than a year despite the number of vacancies sliding for another month, new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday. The rate of UK unemployment fell to 4.7% in the three months to August, from 4.9% in the three months to July, the ONS said. This was the lowest level since the three months to July 2025 and marked an unexpected decline.
More timely data suggests that workers on payrolls increased by about 13,000 between August and September, up from a revised increase of 1,000 between July and August. This marks a reversal after several months of declining employee numbers, but the ONS stressed that the data was provisional and likely to be revised.
Average regular earnings growth rose to 3.7% in the three months to August, from 3.5% growth in the three months to July. Pay continues to outstrip inflation, rising by 0.8% after taking Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation into account. However, total earnings growth, which includes bonuses, fell to 3.7% in the three months to August, which was the lowest rate in nearly six years.
Furthermore, the latest dataset shows that the number of job vacancies advertised by employers continued to shrink, with smaller firms particularly pulling back on hiring. Vacancies fell by 21,000 to a fresh five-year low of 691,000 in the three months to September, according to the ONS's estimates. This marked the biggest decline since the start of the year.
ONS deputy director of labour market statistics, David Freeman, said: "While the labour market remains broadly flat in 2026, data from the latest quarter shows the employment rate edging up and a small drop in unemployment. The number of workers on payroll remains slightly down over the same period, though data for the most recent month suggests that might be starting to level off. The number of vacancies has seen its largest fall since the start of the year, concentrated mainly within smaller businesses, which cite increased labour costs as a key factor. Regular wage growth remained relatively stable, though total pay – including bonuses – has eased to its lowest rate in nearly six years."
Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist for Deutsche Bank, said signs that the UK jobs market is stabilising is "good news" for Chancellor John Healey. "Firms are slowing coming out of the woods as pertains to hiring, and more workers will mean more tax receipts," he said. James Smith, developed markets
economist for ING, said: "After a long period of attrition, there are tentative signs that employment is stabilising. Hospitality – a key area of weakness – recorded a small increase for the first time in months, having been hammered by last year's combination of a big minimum wage hike and tax increases. These figures are prone to a fair bit of revision, but it does tally with the signal coming from some of the hiring surveys that employment is starting to turn a corner."
However, experts said the latest data reinforces expectations that the Bank of England could hike interest rates in November. Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, said: "For the Bank of England, the stronger economy and stabilising labour market means there is no longer a trade-off between low growth and high inflation. This morning's data means an interest rate hike in November now looks exceedingly likely and will probably be followed by at least one more next year."
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图片来源：英国国家统计局（ONS）位于 Newport 的总部大楼资料图。照片：M J Roscoe 摄，CC BY-SA 2.0，经 geograph／维基共享资源。 / File photo: the Newport headquarters of the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Photo by M J Roscoe, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Geograph / Wikimedia Commons.
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