IMF：欧洲央行年内料至少再加息一次25个基点 10月29日决议在即
国际货币基金组织（IMF）上周五表示，欧洲央行今年内可能至少再加息一次25个基点，以遏制通胀压力。欧洲央行下一次政策决议定于10月29日公布，紧随美联储10月27日至28日会议之后，全球两大央行将在同一周内先后定调。
通胀背景方面，能源价格是共同变量：Brent 原油上周五一度突破每桶110美元，为5月以来最高；美国9月进口价格同比上涨8.1%，其中燃料进口价格同比涨34.5%。欧洲同样面临能源成本传导。
汇率市场已先行反应：周一亚洲盘欧元下跌0.1%至1.1225美元附近，法国国内抗议与预算不确定性令法国与德国国债利差保持在约140个基点。InTouch Capital Markets 的分析人士称，本周法国政局的头条风险较高，投资者仓位料将保持轻仓。
美国方面，据 CME FedWatch，美联储10月会议按兵不动的隐含概率约为84%，市场定价显示12月加息概率升至九成上下（不同统计时点在89%至92%之间）。
IMF Sees the ECB Raising Rates at Least Once More This Year, Ahead of Its October 29 Decision
The International Monetary Fund said on Friday that the European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at least once more this year to contain inflation pressure. The ECB's next policy decision is scheduled for October 29, immediately after the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting, putting the world's two most influential central banks on stage in the same week.
Energy is the shared variable in the inflation backdrop: Brent crude briefly climbed above $110 a barrel on Friday, its highest since May, and U.S. import prices rose 8.1% year over year in September, with fuel import prices up 34.5%. Europe faces the same energy cost pass-through.
Currency markets moved first. The euro slipped 0.1% to about $1.1225 in Asian trading on Monday, while domestic protests and budget uncertainty in France kept the spread between French and German government bonds near 140 basis points. Analysts at InTouch Capital Markets said positioning is likely to stay light this week, with headline risk out of France remaining high.
For the United States, CME FedWatch pricing implies roughly an 84% probability that the Fed stays on hold at its October meeting, while the odds of a December hike have risen to around 90%, between 89% and 92% depending on the snapshot.
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图片来源：图：欧洲央行所在地法兰克福的天际线。照片：Flocci Nivis，CC BY 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。/ Photo: The Frankfurt skyline, home of the European Central Bank. Photo by Flocci Nivis, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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