美国建商信心10月跌至29点创2012年以来最低 43%建商降价、平均降幅6%
华盛顿——美国住房建筑商信心10月跌至14年来最低。全美住房建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders，NAHB）10月19日发布的 NAHB／Wells Fargo 住房市场指数（HMI）显示，建商对新建单户住宅市场的信心10月下跌3点至29点，是2012年6月以来的最低读数；该指数低于50，意味着认为市况差的建商多于认为好的建商。（GSM 据 NAHB 10月19日新闻稿编译）
三大分项指数10月全线下跌：现时销售状况指数跌2点至33，未来六个月销售预期指数跌5点至32，潜在买家客流指数跌5点至18。NAHB 首席经济学家 Robert Dietz 表示，除去2020年4月疫情暴发初期，买家客流已跌至2012年4月以来最低；住房市场仍受供给端约束和显著的负担能力问题挤压，需求依然存在，但更高的按揭利率、居高不下的建造成本和走弱的消费者信心，让更多买家留在场外观望。
NAHB 主席 Bill Owens（Ohio 州 Worthington 的建商兼改建商）说，近几周按揭利率已升至7%以上，汽油价格和通胀进一步削弱了全国多地的买家客流；建商同时还在应对建筑贷款、建材和柴油成本上升。他还指出，过去一个月，全美超过三分之一的建商报告其所在市场出现移民执法活动，造成施工延误，也使合法工人不敢上工；他同时表示，政府推进监管改革的努力正在帮助缓解部分成本压力。
为应对负担能力压力，43%的建商在10月降价，是2020年至2026年期间的最高比例；平均降幅连续第七个月保持在6%。65%的建商报告使用销售激励措施，是连续第19个月该比例保持在60%或以上。分地区看，三个月移动平均的 HMI 全线下滑：东北部跌1点至38，中西部跌3点至40，南部跌1点至30，西部跌2点至26；NAHB 指出，中西部是相对亮点，当地单户住宅建筑许可同比增长2.9%。HMI 来自 NAHB 已持续开展40多年的月度建商调查。
Builder Confidence Falls to 29 in October, Lowest Since June 2012, as 43% of Builders Cut Prices
WASHINGTON — Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell three points to 29 in October, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released on October 19. The reading was the lowest since June 2012, NAHB said, and any number below 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor than good. (GSM, compiled from the NAHB press release of October 19)
All three major HMI indices posted losses in October. The index measuring current sales conditions fell two points to 33, the index gauging future sales expectations dropped five points to 32, and the index charting prospective buyer traffic fell five points to 18. "Housing remains squeezed by supply-side constraints and significant affordability challenges," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. "Demand persists, but higher mortgage rates, elevated construction costs and weaker consumer confidence are keeping more buyers on the sidelines. As a result, buyer traffic has fallen to its lowest level since April 2012, excluding the pandemic's onset in April 2020."
"Mortgage rates have climbed well above 7% in recent weeks, and higher gas prices and inflation have further weakened buyer traffic across much of the country," said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens, a home builder and remodeler from Worthington, Ohio. Owens said builders are also contending with higher costs for construction loans, building materials and diesel, and noted that more than one-third of builders nationwide reported immigration enforcement activity in their market areas during the past month, causing construction delays and discouraging legal workers from reporting to work. He added that the administration's efforts to advance regulatory reform are helping to ease some of the cost pressures builders face.
The October survey found that 43% of builders cut prices, the highest share during the 2020–2026 period, while the average price cut remained at 6% for the seventh consecutive month. Meanwhile, 65% of builders reported using sales incentives, the 19th straight month at least 60% of builders have done so. On a regional basis, the three-month moving average HMI fell in all four Census regions: the Northeast dropped one point to 38, the Midwest fell three points to 40, the South fell one point to 30 and the West declined two points to 26. NAHB noted the Midwest is a relative bright spot, with single-family permits up 2.9%. The HMI is derived from a monthly survey NAHB has conducted for more than 40 years.
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：维基共享资源 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · 作者：CassieMCassid
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
