中国三季度经济增长4.5%超预期 出口与高技术制造撑增长 房地产投资降20.6%
北京——中国国家统计局北京时间10月19日发布三季度经济数据：中国国内生产总值（GDP）三季度同比增长4.5%，高于路透社调查预期的4.4%，也高于二季度4.3%的增速；环比增长1.2%，高于预期的1.1%。今年前三季度，中国经济累计增长4.6%，处于全年4.5%至5.0%增长目标区间的下限。
分项数据呈现出口与内需分化。9月工业增加值同比增长5.5%，快于8月的5.2%，为六个月来最快；前三季度高技术制造业增加值增长14.3%。海关数据显示，前九个月芯片出口额同比翻倍以上，贸易顺差达9,381亿美元。9月社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.1%，高于预期的约0.6%与8月的0.4%，为3月以来最快，但内需整体仍偏弱。
投资端继续收缩：前三季度固定资产投资同比下降7.2%，与1至8月降幅相同；其中房地产开发投资下降20.6%，基础设施投资下降4.2%。国家统计局在发布中表示，国内需求不足仍是较为突出的问题，经济持续改善的基础仍需巩固。
大华银行经济学家 Ho Woei Chen 对路透社表示，外需仍在支撑中国经济，这也是官方没有急于推出大规模刺激的原因；该行对中国全年增长的预测为4.5%。国际货币基金组织本月早些时候将中国2026年增长预测下调0.1个百分点至4.5%，并指出强劲出口尚不能完全抵消国内需求的疲弱。（GSM 据路透社、国家统计局发布报道）
据路透社报道，决策层近期已扩大对购房者的支持，并安排5,500亿元未使用的政府债务额度，以缓解地方政府财政压力、扩大基础设施投资，同时未推出大规模刺激措施。
China's Q3 GDP Growth Picks Up to 4.5%, Beating Forecasts, as Exports Offset Weak Domestic Demand
BEIJING — China's National Bureau of Statistics released third-quarter data on Monday (Beijing time) showing gross domestic product grew 4.5% year on year, beating the 4.4% forecast in a Reuters poll and improving from 4.3% in the second quarter. GDP rose 1.2% from the previous quarter. For the first nine months of 2026, the economy expanded 4.6%, at the lower end of the official annual target range of 4.5% to 5.0%.
Industrial output rose 5.5% in September from a year earlier, accelerating from 5.2% in August and marking the quickest pace in six months, while value added in high-tech manufacturing grew 14.3% in the first nine months. Customs figures showed chip export values more than doubling over the nine months and a trade surplus of $938.1 billion. Retail sales grew 1.1% in September, above expectations, though domestic demand remained weak overall.
Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months, property investment dropped 20.6%, and infrastructure investment declined 4.2%. The statistics bureau said insufficient domestic demand remained a relatively prominent problem. UOB economist Ho Woei Chen told Reuters that external demand was still keeping the economy afloat, while the IMF earlier this month trimmed its 2026 China growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 4.5%.
Reuters also reported that policymakers have recently expanded support for homebuyers and arranged 550 billion yuan in unused government debt quota to ease local-government fiscal pressure and expand infrastructure investment, while holding off on large-scale stimulus. (GSM reporting based on Reuters and National Bureau of Statistics releases)
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图片来源：宁波舟山港穿山港区集装箱码头（资料图）。照片：Nbfreeh，Wikimedia Commons，CC BY-SA 4.0。Container terminal at the Chuanshan port area of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port (file photo). Photo: Nbfreeh, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
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