富达研究：比特币市值与美债实际收益率相关性升破0.6创纪录 联邦债务逾40万亿美元
据 Crypto Briefing 报道，富达数字资产（Fidelity Digital Assets）10 月 15 日发布研究称，比特币市值与10 年期美国国债实际收益率（经通胀调整后的收益率）之间的相关性已升破 0.6，创下纪录。富达称，这一关系在历史上长期处于负值或接近零的区间，如今已明确转入正值区域，与两种资产以往的相对走势形成鲜明反差。
富达指出，近两个月的价格走势与这一格局吻合：截至报告发布，比特币在两个月内上涨近 30%，同期 10年期美债收益率上升逾 10%。富达将这一转变归因于宏观力量、特别是美国公共财政压力上升：美国联邦债务已逾 40 万亿美元，债务利息支出已超过联邦医保（Medicare）支出、成为联邦预算第二大支出项。富
达的研究认为，投资者可能正对同一财政担忧作出反应而转向比特币——比特币供应量上限为 2,100 万枚，其发行时间表由代码固定并公开透明。
Fidelity Research: Bitcoin's Correlation With U.S. Treasury Real Yields Climbs Above 0.6 to a Record, as Federal Debt Passes $40 Trillion
The correlation between Bitcoin's market capitalization and the real rate on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has climbed above 0.6, a record, according to research published on October 15 by Fidelity Digital Assets and reported by Crypto Briefing. Fidelity said the relationship has historically sat on the negative or near-zero end of the scale relative to Treasury yields, and has now flipped into clearly positive territory. The "real" rate refers to bond yields after adjusting for inflation.
The recent price action backs up the pattern, Fidelity said: Bitcoin gained nearly 30% over the two months leading up to the report's release, while 10-year Treasury rates rose more than 10% over the same window. Fidelity attributed the change to macroeconomic forces, and specifically to growing pressure on U.S. public finances. U.S. federal debt has now passed $40 trillion, and interest payments on that debt have become the second-largest expense in the federal budget, overtaking Medicare. Fidelity's research suggests investors may be responding to the same concern by turning to Bitcoin, whose supply is capped at 21 million coins and whose issuance schedule is transparent and fixed in code.
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图片来源：图：Casascius 实体比特币纪念币资料照片。照片：Gage Skidmore，CC BY-SA 3.0，Wikimedia Commons。File photo: Casascius physical bitcoins. Photo by Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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