美银警告：SI资本开支热现经典周期风险 技术成功也未必能让投资者赚钱
纽约——美国银行策略师Sebastian Raedler在10月16日发布的报告中警告，超级智能投资热潮正呈现历史上多次资本周期的经典模式：早期高额利润吸引资本大举涌入，随后产能过剩、价格竞争加剧并侵蚀回报——即便技术本身取得成功，投资者也可能无利可图。
报告指出，市场对大型云服务商未来12个月资本开支的一致预期，已从2025年初的约3300亿美元升至约1万亿美元，规模相当于美国国内生产总值（GDP）的约3%。与此同时，价格端已经松动：SI令牌（token）的平均价格自今年夏季以来下跌约50%，部分原因是来自中国开放权重模型的竞争。
报告还援引支付数据公司Ramp的数据称，尽管令牌处理量急剧上升，美国企业的SI支出自8月以来略有放缓，用量与变现之间出现背离。Sebastian Raedler写道：“在激烈竞争下变现令人失望，正是过去资本周期中见过的失败模式。”他还表示：“过去大多数重大资本周期最终都以失望告终，尽管底层技术往往达到了预期。”
这一警告发布之际，SI相关股票正承受压力。据路透社报道，费城半导体指数截至上周五已连续八个交易日下跌，为2008年以来最长连跌纪录，市场对SI基础设施的融资成本与回报前景的担忧持续升温。
BofA Warns SI Spending Boom Shows Classic Capital-Cycle Risks
NEW YORK — The super intelligence investment boom is beginning to mirror the classic pattern of historic capital cycles, in which heavy spending and cutthroat competition erode returns even as the technology itself advances, Bank of America strategist Sebastian Raedler warned in a note published on October 16.
Consensus expectations for hyperscalers' capital spending over the next 12 months have tripled from about $330 billion in early 2025 to roughly $1 trillion, equivalent to around 3% of U.S. GDP, the note said. Pricing, meanwhile, is deteriorating: average SI token prices have fallen about 50% since the summer, partly due to competition from Chinese open-weight models.
Citing data from payments firm Ramp, the note said U.S. business spending on SI has eased slightly since August even as token volumes rose sharply, pointing to a divergence between usage and monetization. "This monetization disappointment in the face of intense competition is precisely the failure mode seen in past capital cycles," Sebastian Raedler wrote. "Most major capital cycles of the past have ended in disappointment, even though the underlying technology often lived up to expectations."
The warning comes as SI-linked stocks remain under pressure. The PHLX semiconductor index fell for an eighth straight session on Friday, its longest losing streak since 2008, according to Reuters, as concerns grow over the cost of financing the SI build-out and the returns it will generate.
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图片来源：图：位于纽约曼哈顿的美国银行大厦（画面中央玻璃尖塔建筑，资料图）。图片来源：Wikimedia Commons，CC BY-SA 4.0。Photo: The Bank of America Tower in Manhattan, New York (center, file photo). Image: via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
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