MBA预测：2027年房贷放款量降5%至不足2万亿美元 30年期利率全年保持7%以上
Chicago——美国抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）10月11日在Chicago举行的2026年年会暨博览会上发布最新抵押贷款金融预测：全美独栋住宅抵押贷款放款总量预计在2027年下降5%，至略低于2万亿美元，低于2026年预计的2.1万亿美元；按笔数计，放款量将下降5.6%，从2026年的530万笔降至2027年的500万笔。MBA于10月16日发布的「每周图表」对该预测作出进一步说明。
分项来看，购房贷款预计增长0.8%，至1.42万亿美元；再融资贷款预计下降17%，至5710亿美元。MBA称，目前仅23%的借款人持有利率高于6%的房贷，在市场利率处于7%区间的情况下，存量借款人几乎没有再融资动力。
利率路径方面，MBA预计30年期固定房贷利率将在2026年第四季度平均为7.3%，并在2027年全年保持在7%以上；10年期美国国债收益率预计在2026年第四季度平均为5.1%，2027年维持在5%附近。MBA首席经济学家迈克·弗拉坦托尼（Mike Fratantoni）表示，房贷利率近期已升至三年多来的最高水平，10年期国债收益率则达到24年来最高；利率与国债收益率预计将从近期高点回落，但仍将高于此前预测的路径，对今年余下时间及2027年的放款量构成明显逆风。
MBA同时预计，美联储公开市场委员会在9月加息25个基点后，还将再加息两次，每次25个基点，分别在今年12月与2027年第一季度；美国经济未来一年预计增长1.8%，失业率将从目前的4.2%小幅升至2027年平均4.3%。弗拉坦托尼指出，该预测面临地缘政治与金融市场冲击等重大不确定性，衰退风险已经升高。
MBA副首席经济学家乔尔·坎（Joel Kan）表示，当前利率水平已使购房与再融资申请活动双双回落，仍在市场中的买家越来越多地转向浮动利率贷款（ARM）或支付点数以降低利率：ARM在申请中的占比过去一个月平均接近10%，预计到2027年仍将保持在9%以上。他还表示，人口增长放缓与移民减少将压低整体住房需求，全美房价年增幅已降至2%左右；MBA预计预测期内独栋与多户新房建设都将减少，全国房价增速将在2027年放缓、2028年再逐步回升。
行业盈利方面，MBA行业分析副总裁玛丽娜·沃尔什（Marina Walsh）表示，今年第二季度独立抵押贷款银行的平均净生产利润连续第五个季度为正，但仍低于2008年以来39个基点的历史平均水平；在受访的325家机构中，前20%的机构平均每笔贷款盈利122个基点（4551美元），后20%平均每笔亏损76个基点（2551美元）。商业与多户房地产方面，MBA预计商业房地产金融放款量2027年增长1%、多户放款量增长2%。
MBA Forecast: Mortgage Originations to Fall 5% to Just Under $2 Trillion in 2027 as 30-Year Rates Stay Above 7%
CHICAGO — Total single-family mortgage origination volume in the United States is expected to decrease 5% to just under $2 trillion in 2027, down from the $2.1 trillion expected in 2026, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said in its latest Mortgage Finance Forecast, announced on October 11 at the association's 2026 Annual Convention and Expo in Chicago. By loan count, origination volume is expected to decrease 5.6% to 5.0 million loans in 2027 from 5.3 million loans expected in 2026. MBA published further detail on the forecast in its Chart of the Week on October 16.
Purchase originations are forecast to increase 0.8% to $1.42 trillion next year, while refinance originations are expected to decrease 17% to $571 billion. MBA noted that only 23% of borrowers hold mortgage rates above 6%, leaving little to no refinance incentive while market rates remain in the 7% range.
On rates, MBA expects the 30-year mortgage rate to average 7.3% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and remain above 7% through 2027, while the 10-year Treasury yield is forecast to average 5.1% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and remain close to 5% through 2027. "Mortgage rates have recently spiked to their highest level in more than three years, while 10-year Treasury rates have reached their highest levels in 24 years," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's chief economist and senior vice president for research and industry development. He said mortgage and Treasury rates are likely to come down from their recent peaks but will remain on a higher path than previously forecast, a serious headwind for origination volume for the remainder of this year and into 2027.
MBA projects U.S. economic growth of 1.8% over the next year and expects two additional 25-basis-point rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee, one in December of this year and a second in the first quarter of 2027, following the FOMC's 25-basis-point hike in September. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise slightly from its current 4.2% to average 4.3% over the course of 2027. Fratantoni noted substantial uncertainties around the forecast, including the potential for geopolitical or financial market shocks, and said the risks of a recession are elevated.
Joel Kan, MBA's vice president and deputy chief economist, said mortgage rates at current levels have caused a pullback in application activity for both home purchases and refinances, and that buyers still in the market are increasingly turning to adjustable-rate loans or paying points to lower their rates: the ARM share of applications averaged almost 10% over the past month and is forecast to remain over 9% through 2027. Kan added that slower population growth and lower immigration will contribute to lower overall demand for housing, that national home-price growth has slowed to the 2% range, and that MBA expects declining levels of new construction for both single-family and multifamily homes, with national home-price growth decelerating in 2027 before gradually picking up again in 2028.
On industry profitability, Marina Walsh, MBA's vice president and head of industry analysis, said average net production profits for independent mortgage banks remained positive in the second quarter for the fifth consecutive quarter, though still below the historical average of 39 basis points dating from 2008. Among 325 lenders surveyed, the top 20% averaged 122 basis points, or $4,551 per loan originated, in the second quarter of 2026, while the bottom 20% averaged a loss of 76 basis points, or $2,551 per loan. MBA also released an updated forecast for commercial and multifamily originations, expecting commercial real estate finance volume to increase 1% and multifamily volume 2% in 2027.
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图片来源：美国俄亥俄州布莱克利克郊区住宅区航拍（2024年10月，资料图） Photo: Pi.1415926535 / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
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