NOAA发布冬季展望：强厄尔尼诺主导今冬 美国北部偏暖、南部多雨雪
美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）10月15日发布2026—2027年冬季展望，覆盖2026年12月至2027年2月：受一个持续增强的强厄尔尼诺影响，今冬美国北部大部地区气温偏高、南部一带降水偏多，全国大部分地区的干旱有望改善。
气温方面，展望显示太平洋西北部、北部落基山、中西部、密西西比河谷、东部大部与阿拉斯加偏暖的可能性最高，其中东南阿拉斯加、上密西西比河谷与五大湖一带偏暖概率最大；东南部包括佛罗里达州气温多接近常年；全美没有任何地区被预测为偏冷。西南部大部与夏威夷则属于偏暖、接近常年与偏冷概率相当。
降水方面，从加利福尼亚州、西南部、南部平原、密西西比河下游、东南部到东海岸的南部一带，降水偏多的可能性较大，其中东南部与佛罗里达偏多概率最高；北部落基山、北部高平原与五大湖部分地区则可能偏干，夏威夷与阿拉斯加大部也偏向偏干。
NOAA气候预测中心称，当前厄尔尼诺持续增强、厄尔尼诺警报仍然生效，预计将延续至2027年春季，今冬与今春的季节展望都以此为主要背景。国家气象局局长肯·格雷厄姆在发布中表示，数十年观测表明，很强的厄尔尼诺会使急流向南、向东推移，提高南方出现风暴天气的可能性；降雨降雪增多可以缓解旱区，但降水落在干土上过多，也可能引发山洪与泥石流，眼下正是社区与个人提前做准备的时候。
同期发布的干旱展望（10月15日至2027年1月）显示，西南部、南部大平原、东南部与东海岸部分地区的干旱将改善或结束；北部落基山部分地区、俄勒冈州东北部与华盛顿州东部的干旱则可能新发或加重。
NOAA还宣布两项冬季服务变化：国家气象局的概率性降水门户已经上线，可查看一地降雪、结冰与降雨的低值、预期值与高值及相应概率；本季起，部分暴风雪警告与冰风暴警告将启用「特别危险情形」措辞，用于提示高确信度的历史性暴风雪或冰风暴。
NOAA说明，季节展望给出的是三个月平均气温与累计降水量高于、接近或低于常年的概率，并不预测整个冬季的降雪总量——降雪一般只能提前约一周作出预报。天气预测中心按月更新三个月展望，下一次更新定于11月19日。
另据报道，NOAA 估计此次厄尔尼诺成为 1950 年以来最强一次的概率达 83%；美国宇航局（NASA）的卫星自今年 1 月起监测到赤道太平洋暖水东移，东太平洋海面温度已高出长期平均约 1.7 摄氏度。
NOAA Winter Outlook: Very Strong El Niño Points to a Warmer North and a Wetter South
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on October 15 released its U.S. Winter Outlook for December 2026 through February 2027: driven by a strengthening, very strong El Niño, the coming winter is expected to be warmer than average across much of the northern United States and wetter than average across the southern tier, with drought improving for most of the country.
On temperature, the outlook favors above-average warmth for the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska, with the highest odds over Southeast Alaska, the upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes. Parts of the Southeast, including Florida, are most likely to see near-normal temperatures, and no part of the country is forecast to be colder than normal. Much of the Southwest and Hawaii have equal chances of above-, near- or below-average temperatures.
On precipitation, wetter-than-average conditions are most likely from California, the Southwest, the Southern Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley through the Southeast and along the Eastern Seaboard, with the greatest likelihood in the Southeast and Florida. Drier-than-average conditions are favored for parts of the northern Rockies, the northern High Plains and the Great Lakes, as well as much of Alaska and Hawaii.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said the ongoing El Niño continues to strengthen, an El Niño advisory remains in effect, and the event is favored to continue through spring 2027, heavily influencing both the winter and spring outlooks. National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in the release that a very strong El Niño will likely shift the jet stream southward and eastward, tilting the odds toward stormier weather across the South; added rain and snow can relieve drought, he said, but too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel flash floods and mudslides, and now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead.
The accompanying drought outlook, running from October 15 through January 2027, forecasts drought to improve or end in the Southwest, the Southern Great Plains, the Southeast and parts of the East Coast, while drought is favored to develop or worsen across parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington.
NOAA also announced two service changes for this winter: the National Weather Service's Probabilistic Precipitation Portal is now operational, showing low-end, expected and high-end amounts of snow, ice and rain and the probabilities of exceeding thresholds; and select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings will this season use "Particularly Dangerous Situation" wording for high-confidence, historic storms.
NOAA notes that seasonal outlooks give the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation will be above, near or below average, and do not project seasonal snowfall totals, which are generally predictable only about a week ahead. The Weather Prediction Center updates its three-month outlook monthly; the next update is due November 19.
Separately, NOAA has estimated an 83 percent chance that this El Niño becomes the strongest since 1950. NASA satellites have tracked warm water moving east across the equatorial Pacific since January, with eastern Pacific sea-surface temperatures running about 1.7 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.
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图片来源：NOAA 2026—2027年冬季气温展望图（2026年10月15日发布）· 美国国家海洋和大气管理局，公共领域
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