NRF预测：今年11至12月美国假日零售额将增长4.2% 达1.013万亿美元
华盛顿——全美零售联合会（NRF）10月15日发布年度假日预测：2026年11月1日至12月31日假日季，美国零售额预计同比增长4.2%，达到1.013万亿美元；2025年同期零售额增长3.1%，为9720亿美元。
NRF的假日口径不含汽车经销商、加油站与餐饮场所，预测基于综合消费者支出、可支配个人收入、就业、工资、通胀与既往月度零售数据的经济模型。NRF预计，零售商今年将雇用32.5万至37.5万名季节性员工，与去年估计的35.6万名大致相当；NRF表示，面对油价偏高、通胀持续、利率较高与消费者债务较重，零售商在季节性招聘上保持谨慎。
NRF首席经济学家马克·马修斯在发布中表示，进入假日季时消费支出势头强劲，消费者仍是经济中的亮点；同时通胀、油价上涨与家庭支出压力对不同收入群体的影响并不相同。
另据路透社同日报道，德勤对约4000名美国消费者的调查显示，今年平均每户假日支出预计增长4%，至1654美元，增幅主要由Z世代与千禧一代消费者带动。
（来源：全美零售联合会官方发布；德勤调查数据据路透社报道）
NRF Forecasts U.S. Holiday Sales to Grow 4.2% to $1.013 Trillion in November and December
WASHINGTON — The National Retail Federation on October 15 released its annual holiday forecast, projecting that U.S. retail sales during the November 1–December 31 holiday season will grow 4.2% over 2025 to $1.013 trillion. Holiday sales in 2025 rose 3.1% to $972 billion.
NRF's holiday measure excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, and its forecast is based on economic modeling that incorporates consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales. NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, in line with last year's estimated 356,000, and said retailers remain measured in seasonal hiring amid higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt.
NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said in the release that spending momentum heading into the season is strong and consumers remain a bright spot in the economy, while adding that inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect consumers differently across income groups.
Separately, Reuters reported the same day that a Deloitte survey of about 4,000 U.S. consumers found average household holiday spending could rise 4% to $1,654 this year, driven by increased spending among Gen Z and millennial shoppers.
(Sources: National Retail Federation release, October 15, 2026; Deloitte survey figures as reported by Reuters)
来源：全美零售联合会官方
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：迈阿密一家商场内的假日季装饰与购物区（资料照片，已裁切去除促销牌）。Phillip Pessar摄，CC BY 2.0，取自维基共享资源。File photo of holiday decor inside a Miami-area store, cropped. Photo by Phillip Pessar, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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