加州公布五月修订预算案：年初还大致平衡，如今要填120亿美元缺口
位于加州首府萨克拉门托的州长办公室于2025年5月14日向州议会提交2025-26财年预算的五月修订案：今年1月提交的预算案当时还大致平衡，几个月后已出现约120亿美元的预算缺口，州政府提出以支出类办法为主填补缺口，不再额外动用储备金。
据加州立法分析师办公室的评估，州长口径的缺口为120亿美元，该办公室估算政府实际处理的预算问题约为140亿美元，两者差额主要来自一批政府算作工作量调整、分析师办公室算作解方的节支提案。
缺口主要来自两头。支出一头，基线支出比1月预计高出120亿美元，最大的推手是 Medi-Cal（加州医疗补助计划）：其成本在三年预算窗口内预计比1月估算多出约100亿美元，其中2025-26财年约占80亿美元。分析师办公室说，涨幅主要来自每名参保人成本高于预期，政府把其中相当一部分归因于没有满意移民身份参保者的成本；居家支持服务（IHSS）个案量与每案工时上升带来的成本是第二大推手。
收入一头则在转弱：五月修订把三年窗口的收入预期下调约50亿美元，其中预算年度的收入预期下调约110亿美元，反映个人所得税与公司税前景转弱；此前年度的收入则比原预计多约60亿美元，部分对冲了预算年度的下滑。
纽森政府的解方以支出类为主、合计约95亿美元，其中约49亿美元为直接削减，且相当部分是持续性削减，到预测期最后一年增至约175亿美元。分析师办公室指出，政府没有为这个新出现的缺口再动用储备金。
具体削减包括：限制 IHSS 服务提供者的加班与交通工时，约省7亿美元；削减向服务无满意移民身份患者的诊所支付的 Medi-Cal 款项约4.5亿美元；取消这一人群的部分长期护理福利约3亿美元。
也有缓和的一面：加州大学（UC）与加州州立大学（CSU）的基础经费削减幅度由原定的7.95%降至3%，普通基金为此多留约2.67亿美元给 UC、约2.31亿美元给 CSU。第98号提案的学校与社区学院最低经费保障，其普通基金部分在两个年度合计减少约39亿美元，但生活成本调整得以维持。
立法分析师办公室建议州议会维持五月修订的总体结构，以支出解方为主，同时提醒全州多年期结构性赤字并未解开，联邦政策变化还可能带来进一步的下行风险。预算案接下来由州议会审议，依法须在6月15日前通过预算案。（来源：加州州长办公室）
California Unveils May Revision Budget: a $12 Billion Problem Emerges Months After a Roughly Balanced January Plan
The Governor's Office in Sacramento, California, presented the May Revision of the proposed 2025-26 state budget to the Legislature on May 14, 2025: a spending plan that had been roughly balanced in January faced a budget problem of about $12 billion only months later, and the administration proposed closing it mainly with spending solutions, without drawing further on reserves.
The Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) put the problem the administration addressed at about $14 billion, against the $12 billion figure cited by the Governor, with the difference mainly reflecting savings proposals the administration counts as workload changes and the LAO counts as budget solutions.
The problem came from two directions. On spending, baseline costs were $12 billion higher than January estimates, driven above all by Medi-Cal, California's Medicaid program, whose costs were projected to exceed January estimates by about $10 billion over the three-year budget window, roughly $8 billion of it in 2025-26. The LAO said the growth reflected higher-than-anticipated per-enrollee costs, with the administration attributing a significant share to enrollees lacking satisfactory immigration status; higher costs in the In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS) program were the other main driver.
On revenue, the outlook had weakened: the May Revision downgraded revenue estimates by about $5 billion over the three-year window, including an $11 billion downgrade for the budget year on diminished expectations for the personal income tax and the corporation tax, partly offset by revenues running about $6 billion ahead of projections for prior and current years.
Governor Gavin Newsom's plan relied mainly on spending solutions totaling $9.5 billion, including about $4.9 billion in reductions, a significant share of them ongoing and growing to $17.5 billion by the last year of the forecast. The LAO noted the administration did not propose using any more reserves for the new problem.
Specific reductions included limiting provider overtime and travel hours in IHSS (about $700 million), reducing Medi-Cal payments to clinics serving patients with unsatisfactory immigration status ($450 million), and eliminating certain long-term care benefits for that population (about $300 million).
Some planned cuts were softened: base funding reductions for the University of California and California State University were eased from 7.95 percent to 3 percent, at an ongoing General Fund cost of about $267 million for UC and $231 million for CSU. The General Fund portion of the Proposition 98 school funding guarantee was down $3.9 billion across two years, while a cost-of-living adjustment was maintained.
The LAO recommended the Legislature keep the overall structure of the May Revision, while warning that the state's persistent multiyear deficits were not fully solved and that federal actions posed added downside risks. The budget next moved to the Legislature, which faced a June 15 deadline to pass a budget bill. (Source: Office of the Governor of California)
来源：加州州长办公室
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：位于 Sacramento 的加州州议会大厦（资料图）。Shanwei Jiang 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: The California State Capitol in Sacramento (file photo). By Shanwei Jiang, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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