美国第一季度经济萎缩0.3%：进口激增与政府支出下降拖累增长
美国商务部经济分析局2025年4月30日在华盛顿公布初步估算：2025年第一季度，美国实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算下降0.3%，而2024年第四季度为增长2.4%。这是美国经济自2022年第一季度以来首次出现季度萎缩。
经济分析局说，一季度实际GDP下降主要反映进口增加和政府支出减少，两者被投资、消费支出和出口的增加部分抵消。进口在GDP核算中是减项：一季度进口激增，其中消费品（以药品、牙科与制药制剂为主）和资本品（以计算机及零部件为主）增幅最大——不少企业在关税上调前集中提前进货。政府支出下降主要由联邦政府支出（以国防消费支出为首）下降带动，被州与地方政府支出的增加部分抵消。
其他分项中，私人库存投资是投资增量的最大来源（以批发贸易、药品与日用品库存为主）；消费支出在服务（医疗、住房与公用事业为首）和商品两方面均有增长，非耐用品的增加被耐用品的减少部分抵消。剔除进口与政府因素的私人国内购买者实际最终销售（消费与私人固定投资之和）一季度增长3.0%，与四季度的2.9%相近。
价格方面，一季度国内购买价格指数上涨3.4%（四季度为2.2%），个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数上涨3.6%，剔除食品与能源的核心PCE价格指数上涨3.5%，均较上一季度加快。经济分析局同时说明，2025年1月南加州野火造成的固定资产损失初步估算为私人资产340亿美元、州与地方政府资产110亿美元，但这场灾害对一季度GDP的总体影响无法单独估算。本次为初步估算，第二次估算定于5月29日公布，数字可能修订。
关联：特朗普签署第14257号行政令加征对等关税：全球基准10%、中国34%（来源：美国商务部经济分析局）
U.S. Economy Shrinks 0.3% in First Quarter as Imports Surge and Government Spending Falls
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025, according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in Washington on April 30, 2025. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP had increased 2.4 percent. It was the first quarterly contraction of the U.S. economy since the first quarter of 2022.
The Bureau said the decrease in real GDP primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending, partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending and exports. The surge in imports was led by consumer goods (mainly medicinal, dental and pharmaceutical preparations) and capital goods (mainly computers and parts), as many businesses brought in goods ahead of tariff increases. The decrease in government spending was led by federal defense consumption expenditures, partly offset by an increase in state and local government spending.
Among other components, private inventory investment, led by wholesale trade inventories of drugs and sundries, was the largest contributor to the increase in investment. Consumer spending rose in both services, led by health care and housing and utilities, and goods, where an increase in nondurable goods was partly offset by a decrease in durable goods. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 3.0 percent, compared with 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter.
On prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 3.5 percent, both faster than in the prior quarter. The Bureau also noted that the January 2025 Southern California wildfires caused preliminary estimated losses of $34.0 billion in privately owned fixed assets and $11.0 billion in state and local government-owned assets, although the disaster's overall impact on first-quarter GDP could not be estimated separately. The figures are an advance estimate, subject to revision; the second estimate was scheduled for May 29.
Related: Trump Signs Executive Order 14257 Imposing Reciprocal Tariffs (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
来源：美国商务部经济分析局
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：位于华盛顿的美国商务部赫伯特·胡佛大楼（经济分析局隶属商务部，资料图）。图：Carol M. Highsmith，公共领域，via Wikimedia Commons / Photo: The Herbert C. Hoover Building of the U.S. Department of Commerce in Washington (file photo); the Bureau of Economic Analysis is part of the Commerce Department. Photo: Carol M. Highsmith, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
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