美联储维持利率不变：联邦基金利率目标区间保持在4.25%至4.50%
2025年3月19日，美联储发布联邦公开市场委员会声明，宣布把联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%。委员会于3月18日至19日举行会议，声明于美东时间当天下午2时发布。
声明说，近期指标显示，经济活动继续以稳健步伐扩张，失业率近几个月稳定在低位，劳动力市场状况保持稳固，通胀仍略偏高。委员会力求在长期实现最大就业与2%的通胀目标。
委员会表示，围绕经济前景的不确定性已经上升，委员会关注其双重使命两方面所面临的风险。在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间作进一步调整的幅度与时机时，委员会将仔细评估新公布的数据、不断变化的前景与风险平衡。委员会坚定致力于支持最大就业，并使通胀回落到2%的目标。
声明说，委员会将继续减持国债与机构债务及机构抵押贷款支持证券，但自4月起放慢减持步伐。其中，国债的每月赎回上限由250亿美元降至50亿美元；机构债务与机构抵押贷款支持证券的每月赎回上限维持在350亿美元。
这一决定以11票赞成、1票反对通过。投赞成票的为委员会主席鲍威尔、副主席威廉姆斯，以及巴尔、鲍曼、柯林斯、库克、古尔斯比、杰斐逊、库格勒、穆萨莱姆与施密德，共11人。投反对票的为理事沃勒一人，他赞成利率区间保持不变，但主张维持原有的证券减持步伐。
美联储同日公布的经济预测摘要显示，2025年实际国内生产总值增长预期的中值为1.7%，低于2024年12月预测的2.1%；2025年个人消费支出通胀预期的中值为2.7%，高于去年12月的2.5%；核心个人消费支出通胀预期的中值为2.8%；2025年底联邦基金利率预期的中值为3.9%。
综合这次决定，委员会此次没有调整利率区间，也没有停止减持证券，而是自4月起明显放慢国债减持速度，同时在预测中下调了今年经济增长预期的中值、上调了通胀预期的中值。（来源：美联储）
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady: Target Range Kept at 4.25% to 4.50%
On March 19, 2025, the Federal Reserve released the statement of the Federal Open Market Committee, announcing that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent. The Committee met on March 18-19, and the statement was released at 2 p.m. Eastern Time that day.
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace, the statement said, the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, labor market conditions remain solid, and inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.
The Committee said that uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased, and that it is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
The statement said the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, but will slow the pace of decline starting in April. The monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities will be lowered from $25 billion to $5 billion, while the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities will be maintained at $35 billion.
The decision was approved by a vote of 11 to 1. Voting in favor were Chair Powell, Vice Chair Williams, and Barr, Bowman, Collins, Cook, Goolsbee, Jefferson, Kugler, Musalem, and Schmid, 11 in all. Voting against was Governor Waller alone, who supported keeping the rate range unchanged but preferred to maintain the existing pace of securities holdings reductions.
The Summary of Economic Projections released the same day showed a median projection of 1.7 percent for real GDP growth in 2025, down from 2.1 percent in the December 2024 projections; a median projection of 2.7 percent for PCE inflation in 2025, up from 2.5 percent last December; a median projection of 2.8 percent for core PCE inflation; and a median projection of 3.9 percent for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025.
Taken together, the Committee this time neither adjusted the rate range nor stopped reducing its securities holdings; instead it markedly slowed the pace of Treasury reductions from April, while lowering the median projection for this year's economic growth and raising the median inflation projection in its forecasts. (Source: Federal Reserve)
来源：美联储
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：2025年3月19日，美联储主席鲍威尔在联邦公开市场委员会会议后的记者会上回答记者提问。（美联储官方照片，公共领域，经 Wikimedia Commons） / Photo: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell answers reporters' questions at the FOMC press conference on March 19, 2025. (Official Federal Reserve photo, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)
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