《自然》研究整合648316条记录评估993种仙人掌：严重干旱与升温叠加抬高灭绝风险
一项2026年11月11日发表于《自然》的研究整合了648,316条仙人掌分布记录与物种分布模型，评估严重干旱如何改变993种仙人掌科植物的适宜气候区。仙人掌科是受威胁程度较高的植物类群之一，过去常被认为耐旱。
研究将包含升温复合效应的严重干旱空间数据与经整理的仙人掌分布数据集结合，比较干旱情景下各物种适宜生境的变化。纳入干旱后，预计失去适宜气候区的物种比例由58%至61%升至69%至72%。
研究结论指出，严重干旱与变暖叠加会提高仙人掌的灭绝风险，提示即便是公认耐旱的类群，也需在气候风险评估中重新核算干旱暴露。
Nature Study of 648,316 Records on 993 Cactus Species: Severe Drought Plus Warming Raises Extinction Risk
A study published in Nature on 11 November 2026 integrated 648,316 cactus occurrence records with species distribution models to assess how severe drought alters projected suitable climatic area for 993 species of Cactaceae, a highly threatened family commonly considered drought tolerant.
The researchers combined new spatial data on severe drought, including compounding effects of warmer temperatures, with a comprehensive curated dataset of cactus occurrences. With drought included, the share of species projected to lose suitable climatic area rose from 58-61% to 69-72%.
The study concluded that severe drought and warming increase the extinction risk of cacti, indicating that even drought-tolerant groups require reassessment under combined drought and warming exposure.
来源：《自然》
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：荒漠中的巨人柱仙人掌。照片：Laurens R. Krol，CC BY 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons / Saguaro cactus in the desert. Photo: Laurens R. Krol, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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