大林波波跨境保护区象群30年研究：21个亚种群中20个增长、2024年估算64,051头
《科学报告》11月13日发表一项研究，汇总分析了大林波波跨境保护区（GLTFCA）非洲草原象30年的种群数据。该保护区横跨津巴布韦、莫桑比克与南非三国，由19个保护地组成，大象被划分为21个亚种群。
研究团队要回答的问题是：在没有管理干预的情况下，这些亚种群能否自行调节数量。由于大象在多国、多机构间共享，监测时间各不相同，团队把各亚种群30年的时间序列汇总后拟合增长模型，评估密度制约效应的变化趋势。
结果显示，在这30年里，21个亚种群中有20个数量增长。研究团队的区域综合估算为：2024年该保护区内共有64,051头大象，95%置信区间为58,532头至70,040头。
研究指出，整个区域的象群数量在增长，但各地的变化并不一致，呈现出拼图式格局。作者认为，扩散通道的恢复、资源可获得性与各类风险，共同塑造着种群的自我调节过程。
论文作者包括 Guldemond、Ferreira、Ernst 等人，2026年5月30日投稿，11月6日被接受，11月13日在《科学报告》发表，数字对象标识符为 10.1038/s41598-026-80436-x。研究使用的大象种群数据经相关保护地主管机构许可后共享。
大林波波跨境保护区是非洲南部重要的跨境生态保护区域，克鲁格国家公园等知名保护地位于其中。这项研究为跨国共享野生动物种群的长期监测提供了30年尺度的综合数据。
图中是航拍镜头下的一群非洲草原象
30-Year Study of Great Limpopo Elephants: 20 of 21 Subpopulations Grew, 2024 Estimate Put at 64,051
A study published in Scientific Reports on November 13 collated and modelled a 30-year time series for African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area (GLTFCA), which comprises 19 protected areas and 21 subpopulations across Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and South Africa.
The researchers sought to determine whether these subpopulations can regulate their numbers without management interventions. Because the wildlife is shared across international borders among multiple institutions and monitoring happens at different times, the team fitted growth models to each subpopulation's 30-year record and evaluated trends in density-dependent effects.
Over this time period, the team found that 20 subpopulations increased in size. Their regional synthesis estimated that there were 64,051 elephants (95% confidence limits: 58,532 to 70,040) in the GLTFCA in 2024.
The authors report that the elephant population is increasing, although not uniformly across space, producing a mosaic of change across the conservation area. They say dispersal opportunities have been restored, and that resource availability and risks are likely shaping population regulation.
The paper, by Guldemond, Ferreira, Ernst and colleagues, was received on May 30, 2026, accepted on November 6, 2026, and published on November 13, 2026, with the digital object identifier 10.1038/s41598-026-80436-x. Permission to use the elephant population data was obtained from the authorities responsible for the protected areas, who shared the data with the researchers.
The GLTFCA is one of southern Africa's major transfrontier conservation landscapes and includes well-known protected areas such as Kruger National Park. The study provides a three-decade regional baseline for monitoring a wildlife population shared by three countries.
来源：《科学报告》
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：航拍镜头下的一群非洲草原象。来源：USAID Africa Bureau, Public domain，维基共享资源。 / Photo: An aerial view of a herd of African savanna elephants. Credit: USAID Africa Bureau, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
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