全美今冬家庭取暖费预计平均1002美元、涨7.1%：东北取暖油家庭预计2977美元、涨70.2%，约六分之一家庭拖欠公用事业账单
美国消息，全美家庭今冬取暖费预计上升。据《纽约邮报》报道，国家能源援助主任协会发布的预测显示，美国家庭今年冬季平均取暖支出预计为 1002 美元，较上个冬季增加 7.1%、即 66 美元。
涨幅最陡的是取暖油家庭。纽约州及附近州依赖取暖油的家庭，今冬费用预计升至 2977 美元，较去年的 1749 美元大涨 70.2%。该协会说，近 500 万美国家庭使用取暖油，主要集中在东北部与阿拉斯加。电费与丙烷费用预计分别增加 6% 与 5%，天然气费用预计大致持平。
取暖油本质上与柴油同属馏分油，柴油也用于生产航空燃油。供应链咨询公司 ProcureAbility 董事总经理乔·亚当斯基说，炼厂在短缺下被迫在航空燃油与取暖油之间取舍，可能加剧短缺。他对《纽约邮报》说，取暖油成本是伊朗战争的直接后果，几个月来业界一直说，到了冬天取暖油会因海湾事件而溢价，如今已经到来。
美国能源信息署数据显示，截至 11 月 2 日当周，全美居民取暖油平均价格降至每加仑 6.14 美元，前一周为 6.23 美元，但仍比去年同期高约 69%。取暖油主要用于 1990 年以前建造的老房子，这类住房大多集中在东北部。据美国人口普查局数据，缅因州约 59% 的家庭依赖取暖油，新罕布什尔州为 43%，佛蒙特州 40%，康涅狄格州 39%。
国家能源援助主任协会执行主任马克·沃尔夫在声明中说，对高收入家庭而言，这些涨幅可能只是不便；对中低收入家庭而言，则可能是毁灭性的。他说，家庭已经在为食品、住房与其他必需品价格上涨挣扎，冬季取暖账单再增加数百甚至数千美元，会把许多家庭推向更深的债务。该协会说，全美约六分之一家庭拖欠公用事业账单，欠款总额约 230 亿美元。
亚当斯基还提到，预报人员预计，由于强厄尔尼诺把急流推向更偏南、更偏东的位置，今冬开局较为温和，这可能减少取暖油用量、使平均费用低于预期。沃尔夫说，尽管近期取暖油价格回落值得欢迎，家庭不应假定价格会继续下跌；霍尔木兹海峡局势仍然高度动荡，出于规划目的，应审慎假定取暖油价格整个取暖季都将维持高位，各州需要为价格居高不下的可能作准备。
US Home Heating Bills Are Forecast to Average $1,002 This Winter, Up 7.1 Percent: Heating-Oil Households in the Northeast Face $2,977, Up 70.2 Percent, and About One in Six Households Are Behind on Utility Payments
American households are projected to spend an average of $1,002 on home heating this winter, a 7.1 percent or $66 increase from last winter, according to a new forecast from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, the New York Post reported.
Households in New York and nearby states that rely on heating oil will see their costs rise to $2,977 this winter, a 70.2 percent jump from $1,749 last year, according to the association. Nearly 5 million United States households depend on the fuel, concentrated primarily in the Northeast and Alaska. Electricity and propane costs are projected to increase 6 percent and 5 percent, respectively, while natural gas costs are expected to remain roughly the same.
Heating oil is essentially the same distillate as diesel, which is also used to make jet fuel. Refiners facing shortages have been forced to make choices about whether to produce jet fuel or heating oil, which could worsen shortages further, according to Joe Adamski, managing director of ProcureAbility, a supply chain consultancy. Heating oil costs are a direct consequence of the Iran war, Adamski told the Post. We have been saying for months that come winter, heating oil was going to be at a premium due to Gulf events, and now we have arrived, he said.
National average residential heating oil prices fell to $6.14 a gallon in the week ending November 2, down from $6.23 a gallon, according to the United States Energy Information Administration, but are still roughly 69 percent higher than the same time last year. Heating oil is primarily used in older homes built before 1990, which are largely concentrated in the Northeast. According to United States Census Bureau data, about 59 percent of Maine households rely on heating oil, as do 43 percent in New Hampshire, 40 percent in Vermont and 39 percent in Connecticut.
For higher-income households, these increases may be an inconvenience; for low- and middle-income families, they can be devastating, Mark Wolfe, executive director of the association, said in a statement. Families are already struggling with rising costs for food, housing and other necessities, and adding hundreds or even thousands of dollars to their winter heating bills will push many of them further into debt, he said. About one in six households are behind on their utility payments, owing about $23 billion, the association said.
Adamski also noted that experts are forecasting a milder start to the winter season due to a strong El Nino pushing the jet stream further south and east, which could mitigate heating oil usage and keep average costs lower. Wolfe said that while the recent decline in heating oil prices is welcome news, families should not assume that prices will continue to fall, that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly volatile, and that for planning purposes it is prudent to assume that heating oil prices will remain elevated throughout the winter heating season, and states need to prepare for the possibility that prices will stay high.
来源：国家能源援助主任协会
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：马萨诸塞州阿灵顿的一辆取暖油配送车（资料图，东北部是取暖油家庭集中的地区）。图中是一辆停靠路边的取暖油配送卡车。Daderot，CC0（按 Wikimedia Commons 文件页抄录），经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: file photo related to this report. Daderot，CC0（按 Wikimedia Commons 文件页抄录）, via Wikimedia Commons.
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