印度喜马偕尔邦森林火灾20年增逾10倍：2004年132起升至2024年1358起，《科学报告》11月13日刊出
《科学报告》2026年11月13日刊出一项研究，梳理印度喜马偕尔邦的森林火灾事件及其与气候属性的关系。研究采用资源管理系统火灾信息，即FIRMS，门户的夏季与季风季火灾数据，覆盖2004年至2024年。作者为Mehta、Baweja与Goroshi等人，论文数字对象标识为10.1038/s41598-026-76839-5，2026年7月15日收稿、10月15日接受、11月13日刊出。
期刊摘要报告，该邦森林火灾事件从2004年的132起增加到2024年的1358起，增幅逾10倍。2024年索兰区在两个季节合计报告的火灾事件最多，为274起，研究据此选取索兰区深入分析火灾与气候属性的关系。研究以变点检测与Mann-Kendall检验作趋势分析，结果显示8月与9月的最高温与平均温呈显著上升趋势，4月的昼夜温差呈显著上升趋势，夏季温度序列在1997年前后出现显著变点，并在95%置信水平下确认齐性。
摘要还报告，2024年干旱指数低于2.0、火灾气象指数低于15.0时，火灾事件数最多。相关分析显示，火灾事件与潜在蒸散量、平均温度呈正相关。主成分分析中，两个主成分在夏季与季风季分别解释约63.8%与约64.9%的变异，潜在蒸散量、平均温度与昼夜温度对火灾事件的正载荷最高。作者据此指出，气候在该邦森林火灾事件中的作用正在上升。
（来源：《科学报告》）
Forest Fire Events in India's Himachal Pradesh Rose More Than Tenfold in 20 Years: From 132 in 2004 to 1,358 in 2024, in Scientific Reports on November 13
A study published in Scientific Reports on November 13, 2026, provides an overview of forest fire events in Himachal Pradesh, India, and their relationship with climatic attributes. The study collected fire data for the summer and monsoon seasons from the Fire Information for Resource Management System, or FIRMS, portal, covering 2004 to 2024. The authors are Mehta, Baweja, Goroshi and colleagues, and the paper carries digital object identifier 10.1038/s41598-026-76839-5, was received on July 15, 2026, accepted on October 15, 2026, and published on November 13, 2026. The journal abstract reported that forest fire events in the state increased from 132 in 2004 to 1,358 in 2024, a rise of more than tenfold. The Solan district reported the highest number of forest fire events in 2024, at 274 across both seasons, and was therefore selected for exploring the relationship between fire incidents and climatic attributes. Change point detection and the Mann-Kendall test were applied for trend analysis, finding a significant rising trend for maximum and mean temperatures for August and September, a significant increasing trend for diurnal temperature in April, and a significant change point around 1997 in the summer temperature series, with homogeneity confirmed at the 95 percent confidence level. The abstract further reported that aridity index values below 2.0 and fire weather index values below 15.0 in 2024 were associated with the maximum number of fire incidents, and that correlation analysis indicated a positive correlation between fire events, potential evapotranspiration and mean temperature. In principal component analysis, two components contributed about 63.8 percent and 64.9 percent of variability during the summer and monsoon seasons, with potential evapotranspiration, mean and diurnal temperatures showing the highest positive loading with forest fire incidents.
(Source: Scientific)
来源：《科学报告》
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：森林火灾中正在燃烧的火焰与林木。Forest Service Pacific Northwest Region，公共领域，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: Forest Service Pacific Northwest Region, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
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