美联储副主席 Jefferson 谈超级智能与生产率：对整体生产率贡献仍有限，通胀走势是政策更重要信号
圣迭戈 — 美联储副主席 Philip N. Jefferson 2026年11月13日在加州大学圣迭戈分校经济学圆桌会议上发表题为《新技术、老问题：生产率之谜与宏观经济》的演讲。他说，生成式超级智能（SI）等新技术看似无处不在，但对整体生产率的贡献目前仍有限、潜力可能相当大；通胀走势是决定货币政策立场的更重要信号，后续政策调整将取决于数据趋势、前景变化与风险平衡。
Jefferson 说，调查显示，40%到50%的在职成年人已在工作中使用生成式超级智能工具，但每天都用的人只占少数。美国人口普查局对全国企业的调查显示，截至2026年年中，约25%的美国企业至少在一项业务中使用这项技术，专业服务与信息等知识密集行业接近40%，采矿与休闲酒店业只有约10%。
生产率方面，美国劳动生产率2020年至2025年年均增长2.2%，高于上一个商业周期的1.5%，但这轮上升在热门聊天机器人2022年问世之前就已经开始，眼下还不能断定超级智能在其中起了多大作用。他说，微观研究显示新技术能明显提升客服等特定任务的效率，但企业层面的效果还比较有限，有调查估计超级智能过去三年只让每名员工的销售额提高了约0.5%。
经济前景方面，Jefferson 说今年美国经济保持与潜在增速大致相符的势头，第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长3.4%，企业投资强劲、消费支出有韧性，预计明年扩张将大体延续。劳动力市场已经企稳，10月失业率为4.1%，裁员保持低位、职位空缺略有上升，他预计失业率近期将维持在当前水平附近，这一水平与充分就业相符，就业与产出前景的风险大体平衡。
通胀方面，他说通胀仍明显高于联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）2%的目标：9月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数同比上涨3.6%，剔除食品与能源的核心 PCE 同比上涨3.1%，能源价格走高是推手之一，10月已公布数据仍显示通胀远高于目标；短期通胀预期有所升高，长期预期则大体稳定在与2%目标相符的水平。
货币政策方面，Jefferson 说他上月在 FOMC 会议上与多数同僚一道投票维持联邦基金利率不变，此后数据大体显示经济活动与劳动力市场稳健、价格压力持续。他说：「我认为通胀的走势，为判断合适的货币政策立场提供了更重要的信号。」今后的政策调整应仔细考察数据趋势、不断变化的前景与风险平衡来决定。
（来源：美联储）
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson on Super Intelligence and Productivity: Aggregate Contribution Still Limited, Inflation Trajectory the Key Policy Signal
San Diego — Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson delivered a speech titled "New Technology, Old Questions: Productivity Puzzles and the Macroeconomy" at the University of California San Diego Economics Roundtable on November 13, 2026. He said new technologies such as generative super intelligence (SI) may seem to be everywhere, but their contribution to aggregate productivity so far appears limited, with the potential to grow substantially; the trajectory of inflation provides the more important signal for the stance of monetary policy, and further adjustments should be determined by data trends, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
Jefferson said surveys find that 40 to 50 percent of working adults are using generative SI tools in their jobs, though only a modest fraction uses them every day. A U.S. Census Bureau survey of firms found that, as of the middle of 2026, roughly 25 percent of U.S. firms were using the technology in at least one business function, closer to 40 percent in knowledge-intensive sectors such as professional services and information, and around 10 percent in mining and in leisure and hospitality.
On productivity, labor productivity growth averaged 2.2 percent between 2020 and 2025, up from the 1.5 percent pace of the previous business cycle, but the surge began before the debut of popular chatbots in 2022, and it is too early to say what role SI played. Microeconomic evidence shows substantial efficiency gains for specific tasks such as customer support, he said, while firm-level effects so far appear modest: one survey of senior managers estimated SI has boosted sales per employee by just one-half percent over the past three years.
On the outlook, Jefferson said the economy has gained momentum this year at a pace roughly in line with potential, with gross domestic product expanding 3.4 percent in the third quarter, strong business investment, and resilient consumer spending, and he expects the expansion to continue roughly in line with potential output next year. Labor market conditions have stabilized, with the unemployment rate settling at 4.1 percent in October, layoffs remaining low, and job openings moving a bit higher; he expects unemployment to stay around its current level in the near term, a level he views as consistent with maximum employment, and sees the risks to output and employment as roughly balanced.
On inflation, he said inflation remains notably above the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent target: the 12-month change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was 3.6 percent in September and core PCE inflation was 3.1 percent, with higher energy costs among the drivers, and data received so far for October remains consistent with well above-target inflation. Short-term inflation expectations are elevated, while most longer-term measures have remained stable at levels consistent with 2 percent inflation.
On policy, Jefferson said he joined the majority of his colleagues at last month's FOMC meeting in voting to hold the federal funds rate steady, and data since then show broadly solid activity and labor market conditions alongside persistent price pressures. "I see the trajectory of inflation as providing the more important signal for determining the appropriate stance of monetary policy," he said, adding that further policy adjustments should be determined by carefully examining trends in the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
(Source: Federal Reserve)
来源：美联储
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：美联储总部大楼（GSM 四级图库联邦核心包固定图）。 / Photo: Federal Reserve headquarters building (GSM federal core asset pack).
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
