哈萨克斯坦国家银行预计2026年经济增长4.5%至5.5%，同时上调2027年通胀预期到6.5%至8.5%
哈萨克斯坦国家银行2026年11月11日公布最新判断：哈萨克斯坦经济2026年全年预计增长4.5%至5.5%。国家银行副行长 Akylzhan Baimagambetov 在一场介绍国际货币基金组织地区经济展望的发布会上说，初步估算，哈萨克斯坦国内生产总值2026年前九个月增长了4.2%。
增长往上走的同时，通胀压力并没有退干净。哈萨克斯坦年通胀率10月放缓到9.2%，但国家银行判断通胀压力仍然偏高，并把2027年的通胀预期从原来的5.5%至7.5%上调到6.5%至8.5%。
货币政策方面，国家银行10月23日把基准利率从16.25%下调到15.75%，下一次利率决定定在12月4日。国家银行和政府正在执行一项2026至2028年的联合行动计划，协调货币和财政政策，保住价格稳定。
一边是接近5%的增长，一边是将近两位数的通胀，哈萨克斯坦央行的下一步利率决定要在两者之间找平衡。12月4日的会议会给出下一个信号。
（来源：哈萨克斯坦国家银行）
Kazakhstan's National Bank Sees 2026 Growth of 4.5 to 5.5 Percent While Raising Its 2027 Inflation Forecast to 6.5 to 8.5 Percent
The National Bank of Kazakhstan set out its latest assessment on November 11, 2026: the country's economy is expected to grow by 4.5 to 5.5 percent by the end of 2026. Deputy Chairman Akylzhan Baimagambetov told a presentation of the International Monetary Fund's regional economic outlook that preliminary estimates showed gross domestic product had increased by 4.2 percent between January and September 2026.
While growth is moving up, inflation pressure has not cleared. Annual inflation slowed to 9.2 percent in October, but the National Bank said inflationary pressures remain elevated, and it revised its inflation forecast for 2027 upward, from 5.5 to 7.5 percent to 6.5 to 8.5 percent.
On monetary policy, the National Bank cut its base rate from 16.25 percent to 15.75 percent on October 23, and the next scheduled rate decision is expected on December 4. The National Bank and the Government are implementing a joint action programme for 2026 to 2028 to coordinate monetary and fiscal policy and ensure price stability.
With growth near 5 percent on one side and inflation close to double digits on the other, the central bank's next rate decision has to balance the two. The December 4 meeting will give the next signal.
(Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan)
来源：哈萨克斯坦国家银行
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图片来源：图：哈萨克斯坦阿斯塔纳巴伊杰列克塔。照片：经维基共享资源。 / Photo: Bayterek Tower in Astana, Kazakhstan. Photo via Wikimedia Commons
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