德国经济专家委员会把2026年增长预期上调到1.3%，同时警告国防和养老金开支的赤字风险
德国经济专家委员会2026年11月11日向总理 Friedrich Merz 递交年度报告，大幅上调增长预期：2026年德国经济预计增长1.3%，比此前预测高出一倍还多；2027年预计增长1%。委员会主席 Monika Schnitzer 说，经济出现明显回升，动力来自出人意料的强劲出口和较高的政府支出。
报告同时给财政敲了警钟。委员会警告，政府必须控制国防和退休福利方面的开支，否则到2040年，可能出现相当于年经济产出2.7%到4.8%、现有预算没有覆盖的赤字缺口。
Merz 回应说，政府完全清楚这些需要花钱的挑战，会尽一切努力保住德国的最高AAA信用评级。他还表示，政府将继续削减补贴和财政补助、节约人员开支，并计划在年内就养老金保险改出一套新方案、由内阁做出决定。
财政部长 Lars Klingbeil 同一天说，节支措施已经在推进，2027年预算原先340亿欧元的缺口已经补上。2027年联邦预算的最后细节定于11月12日由联邦议院敲定。
（来源：德国经济专家委员会）
German Economic Council Raises 2026 Growth Forecast to 1.3 Percent While Warning on Defence and Pension Deficits
The German Council of Economic Experts handed its annual report to Chancellor Friedrich Merz on November 11, 2026, significantly revising its growth forecasts upward: the German economy is now expected to grow by 1.3 percent in 2026, more than double the previous forecast, and by 1 percent in 2027. Council chair Monika Schnitzer said there is a clear economic upturn, driven by surprisingly strong exports and high levels of government spending.
The report also sounded a fiscal warning. The panel said the government must rein in spending on defence and retirement benefits, or deficits of between 2.7 and 4.8 percent of annual economic output, not covered by current budgeting projections, could open up by 2040.
Merz replied that the government is fully aware of the challenges that require funding and will do everything in its power to maintain Germany's top AAA credit rating. He said the government will continue cuts in subsidies and financial aid and savings on personnel, and wants the cabinet to reach a decision this year on switching pension insurance to a new concept.
Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said the same day that cost-cutting measures were already underway, with a previous 34 billion euro gap in the 2027 budget now closed. The final details of the 2027 federal budget are to be locked in by the Bundestag on November 12.
(Source: German Council of Economic Experts)
来源：德国经济专家委员会
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图片来源：图：德国柏林勃兰登堡门。照片：Thomas Wolf，CC BY-SA 3.0，经维基共享资源。 / Photo: The Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, Germany. Photo: Thomas Wolf, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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