美联储理事 Barr：美国劳动收入份额降至52.8%创纪录低点，超级智能或扩大不平等
美联储理事 Michael S. Barr 11月12日在华盛顿以线上对话形式发表题为「超级智能与不平等」的演讲。他依据美联储上月公布的2025年消费者财务调查指出，美国财富与收入高度集中：收入最高的10%家庭拿走全美近一半收入，最高的1%拿走约五分之一；财富最高的10%家庭持有近四分之三的全部财富，最高的1%持有约三分之一，约合近60万亿美元。
演讲说，财富分布最底层的半数家庭合计只持有略高于2%的财富，户均约5.2万美元；最富裕的0.1%家庭只有约13.5万户，却持有全国六分之一的财富。居于最富1%门槛的家庭财富为1,630万美元，是中间家庭21.5万美元的75倍。美联储另一项年度调查显示，2025年有31%的受访者拿不出现金应对500美元以上的紧急支出。Barr 还引《福布斯》数据说，美国亿万富翁已近1,000人，富豪榜前400人的财富占比由2022年的3%升至最新调查的4%。
Barr 说，二战后美国劳动收入占国民收入的比重长期稳定在60%至65%之间，2001年起逐步下滑，疫情后跌势加快，2026年第二季度降至52.8%的纪录低点。他把原因归为三项：技术替代劳动、约四分之三行业自2000年以来市场集中度上升，以及劳动者议价能力减弱。
谈到超级智能，Barr 说，超级智能可能成为一种回报主要归于资本的创新：少数超大规模企业与前沿实验室若主导市场并拿走投资回报的大头，大企业能负担投资继续扩张，小企业份额萎缩，劳动收入份额将进一步下降、不平等扩大。他同时说，目前超级智能替代劳动者的情况总体还不多，已有一些提高生产率、增加部分行业需求和创造新职业的证据，但已有迹象显示，超级智能在部分行业正替代较年轻、经验较少的劳动者；若竞争保持充分、接入保持广泛，收益也可能更广泛地分享。
Barr 在演讲结尾说：「在我看来，现在就是社会开始考虑如何应对这些潜在挑战的时候，趁超级智能的应用还处在相对早期阶段，这样我们才能实现它对社会的长期益处。」他表示，演讲观点只代表其本人，不代表美联储理事会或联邦公开市场委员会其他成员。
（来源：美联储）
Fed Governor Barr: Labor Share of U.S. Income Falls to Record Low 52.8%, Super Intelligence Could Widen Inequality
Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr delivered a speech on super intelligence and inequality in a virtual conversation on November 12. Drawing on the Federal Reserve's 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, published last month, Barr said wealth and income in the United States are highly concentrated: the top 10 percent of households by income receive almost one-half of all income and the top 1 percent about one-fifth, while the wealthiest 10 percent hold nearly three-fourths of all wealth and the top 1 percent about one-third, nearly $60 trillion.
The bottom half of households by wealth hold just over 2 percent of all wealth, an average of $52,000, Barr said, while the top 0.1 percent, only about 135,000 households, own one-sixth of the nation's wealth. A household at the lower edge of the top 1 percent has $16.3 million, 75 times the $215,000 of a household in the middle. Another annual Fed survey found that 31 percent of respondents in 2025 did not have cash to cover an emergency expense of $500 or more. Citing Forbes, Barr said the United States counts nearly 1,000 billionaires, and the 400 wealthiest individuals' share of total wealth rose from 3 percent in 2022 to 4 percent in the most recent survey.
Barr said the labor share of national income was fairly steady between 60 percent and 65 percent after World War II, began falling in 2001, and dropped especially steeply after the pandemic, reaching a record low of 52.8 percent in the second quarter of 2026. He cited three causes: technology replacing labor, increased market concentration in three-quarters of U.S. industries since 2000, and reduced bargaining power for workers.
On super intelligence (SI), Barr said it could prove to be capital-biased innovation in which returns go primarily to capital: if a small number of hyperscalers and frontier labs dominate the market and receive the lion's share of investment returns, the labor share would decline further and inequality would rise. So far, he said, there has been relatively little displacement of workers by SI and significant evidence that it is enhancing some workers' productivity, though there are signs it may be substituting for labor in some sectors, especially for younger, less experienced workers, and broad, competitive access could mean the benefits are more widely shared.
"In my judgment, now is the time for society to begin to consider how to address these potential challenges, while AI adoption is in its relatively early stages, so we can realize the long-term benefits for society," Barr said. He noted the views expressed were his own and not necessarily those of his colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.
(Source: Federal Reserve)
来源：美联储
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：美联储总部埃克尔斯大楼正面，位于华盛顿。Wikimedia Commons 文件「Eccles Building (26088200676).jpg」，公共领域。 / Photo: The front of the Federal Reserve's Eccles Building headquarters in Washington. Wikimedia Commons file 'Eccles Building (26088200676).jpg', public domain.
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
