内陆帝国租金未来三年年均涨 2.4% 为南加最快：南加州大学卡斯登预测称平均租金将由 2150 美元升至 2029 年 6 月 2309 美元
加利福尼亚州河滨县 — 根据南加州大学 11 月 11 日发布的一份预测，随着公寓建设放缓，包括河滨县与圣贝纳迪诺县在内的内陆帝国地区租金，到 2029 年将比南加州其他地区涨得更快。
南加州大学拉斯克房地产中心的卡斯登房地产经济预测预计，内陆帝国未来三年平均年租金涨幅为 2.4%，在所研究的 5 个市场中最高。该预测把河滨县与圣贝纳迪诺县作为一个内陆帝国市场处理，不提供分县估算。
内陆帝国的平均租金在 6 月为 2150 美元，在所研究市场中最低，预计到 2029 年 6 月升至 2309 美元。其空置率在 6 月为 6.47%，预计将降至 5.83%。
报告称，内陆帝国在过去三年新增了 12300 套出租单元，公寓存量扩大约 7%，是南加州 5 个市场中增速最快的。这一建设帮助把租金涨幅压低到近 1%。近期开发大多在豪华市场之外，甲级公寓占新增供应的 32%，其余交付大多为中档乙级。
预测作者迪奥普（Moussa Diop）是南加州大学索尔普莱斯公共政策学院的房地产副教授。他表示，住房只有充足才可能负担得起，圣地亚哥与内陆帝国显示可负担性仍有希望，但有意义的改善需要时间与持续开发。
报告同时警告，该地区的可负担优势可能受到威胁，因为在市场吸收近期完工公寓的同时，开工量已从 2024 年峰值下降 60%。该预测还预计，洛杉矶县年租金涨幅为 1.4%，橙县为 1.9%，圣地亚哥县为 1.5%，文图拉县为 2.2%，并称持续通胀、利率高企与建筑成本高昂是未来住房开发的障碍。
Inland Empire Rents Projected to Rise 2.4 Percent a Year, Fastest in Southern California: USC Casden Forecast Sees Average Rent Climbing from 2,150 Dollars to 2,309 Dollars by June 2029
Riverside, California — Rents in the Inland Empire, which includes Riverside and San Bernardino counties, are expected to rise faster than elsewhere in Southern California through 2029 as apartment construction slows, according to a University of Southern California forecast released on November 11.
The USC Lusk Center for Real Estate's Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast projects average annual rent growth of 2.4% in the Inland Empire during the next three years, the highest rate among the five markets studied. The forecast treats Riverside and San Bernardino counties as a single Inland Empire market and does not provide separate county-level estimates.
The Inland Empire's average rent was 2,150 dollars in June, the lowest among the markets studied, and is projected to reach 2,309 dollars by June 2029. Its vacancy rate was 6.47% in June and is forecast to fall to 5.83%.
The report said the Inland Empire added 12,300 rental units over the past three years, expanding its apartment stock by about 7%, the fastest growth rate among the five Southern California markets. That construction helped moderate rent growth to nearly 1%, the forecast said. Most recent development was outside the luxury market, with Class A apartments accounting for 32% of new supply and most remaining deliveries in the midrange Class B category.
Forecast author Moussa Diop, an associate professor of real estate at the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, said housing cannot be affordable unless there is plenty of it, and that San Diego and the Inland Empire show there is still hope for affordability, but meaningful gains take time and sustained development.
The report cautioned that the area's affordability advantage could be threatened as construction starts have fallen 60% from their 2024 peak while the market absorbs recently completed apartments. The forecast also projects annual rent growth of 1.4% in Los Angeles County, 1.9% in Orange County, 1.5% in San Diego County and 2.2% in Ventura County, and cited persistent inflation, elevated interest rates and high construction costs as obstacles to future housing development.
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图片来源：图：图中是加利福尼亚州的公寓楼（通用图）。FASTILY，CC BY-SA 3.0，经Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: file photo. FASTILY, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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