马达加斯加央行维持基准利率12.50%：预计2026年增长3.5%，通胀年底升至9.3%
马达加斯加中央银行11月3日召开货币政策委员会会议，决定把基准利率维持在12.50%不变，新利率水平从11月4日起执行三个月；央行同日发布的货币政策报告预计，马达加斯加2026年经济增长3.5%，通胀则会在12月升到9.3%。
先看利率。央行8月刚把基准利率从12.00%上调到12.50%，这次按兵不动，意思是借钱的成本继续保持在高位，央行要先把通胀压回中期目标5%附近，才考虑松动。
再看物价这本账。央行数据显示，年通胀从3月的6.8%一路升到9月的8.6%，预计12月达到9.3%，要到2027年第二季度才开始放缓。食品和能源是推高物价的主力，家庭的购买力仍在承压，这是央行不敢放松的主要原因。
增长这边是另一番景象。央行报告说，第三季度经济活动明显回暖，年度经济活动指标同比增长6.1%，远高于第二季度的0.5%；旅游、出口和服务业的前景被看好。1月至8月马达加斯加接待游客209,398人次，同比增长13.7%。香草、丁香、胡椒等经济作物出口和钴、钛等矿产出口被点名为增长动力。
风险也写得明白。2026年前九个月贸易逆差扩大到19.2亿美元，高于去年同期的15.1亿美元，进口增长13%、出口只增长3%，本币阿里亚里对美元仍有贬值压力。央行9月底的外汇储备约36亿美元。
对在马达加斯加经商和生活的华人来说，这份报告的实用信息很集中：未来三个月融资成本不会降，物价还要再涨一段，出口和旅游相关的生意则有真实的回暖信号。利率下一次调整窗口在三个月后，届时通胀是否见顶将是关键。
（来源：马达加斯加中央银行）
Madagascar's Central Bank Holds Policy Rate at 12.50%: Sees 3.5% Growth in 2026, Inflation at 9.3% by Year-End
Madagascar's central bank, Banky Foiben'i Madagasikara, decided at its Monetary Committee meeting on November 3 to keep its policy rate at 12.50 percent for another three months from November 4. In its monetary policy report released the same day, the bank forecast economic growth of 3.5 percent for 2026, with inflation rising to 9.3 percent in December.
On the rate itself, the bank had raised it from 12.00 to 12.50 percent in August. Holding now means borrowing costs stay restrictive: the bank wants inflation steered back toward its 5 percent medium-term target before any easing.
Prices tell the harder story. Central bank figures show annual inflation climbing from 6.8 percent in March to 8.6 percent in September, projected to reach 9.3 percent in December and to slow only from the second quarter of 2027. Food and energy are the main drivers, and household purchasing power remains under pressure, the chief reason the bank will not loosen policy.
Activity looks brighter. The report says momentum returned in the third quarter, with its intra-annual activity indicator up 6.1 percent year on year against just 0.5 percent in the second quarter, and tourism, exports and services seen as encouraging. Madagascar received 209,398 visitors between January and August 2026, up 13.7 percent on the same period a year earlier. Cash crop exports such as vanilla, cloves and pepper, and mineral exports including cobalt and titanium, were named as growth drivers.
The risks are stated plainly. The trade deficit widened to 1.92 billion US dollars in the first nine months of 2026, from 1.51 billion a year earlier, with imports up 13 percent and exports up only 3 percent, leaving the ariary under pressure against the dollar. Foreign exchange reserves stood at about 3.6 billion dollars at the end of September.
For Chinese businesses and residents in Madagascar, the report's practical message is concentrated: financing costs will not fall for three months, prices will keep rising for a while, and export and tourism related business has a genuine recovery signal. The next rate decision falls in three months, when whether inflation has peaked will be the key question.
(Source: Central Bank of Madagascar)
来源：马达加斯加中央银行
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图片来源：图：马达加斯加首都塔那那利佛王宫山丘一带。照片：Ozanna，CC BY-SA 4.0，经维基共享资源。 / Photo: Antananarivo, capital of Madagascar, by the Queen's Palace hill. Photo by Ozanna, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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