美联储理事Waller支持12月加息25个基点：核心通胀若再涨0.3%应考虑加息50个基点
伦敦 — 美联储理事 Christopher J. Waller 11月10日在伦敦发表题为《经济展望》的预备演讲。他说，美国经济活动强劲、劳动力市场稳定，但通胀仍远高于联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）2%的目标；即使当天稍晚公布的10月通胀数据较9月改善，他仍倾向于支持在12月会议上把政策利率上调25个基点。他同时说，若10月核心消费者价格指数（CPI）环比涨幅在0.3%或更高、与过去两个月相近，12月会议就应考虑加息50个基点，只加25个基点会危及美联储的信誉。
Waller 说，他在10月会议上支持按兵不动，是因为委员会此前关于可能收紧政策的沟通已经让金融市场计入了部分紧缩，关键在于承诺的加息要在合理时间内兑现，是否连续会议加息并不重要。他说，第三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）初估增长3.4%，消费支出强劲、企业投资旺盛，超级智能（SI）建设带动的高科技设备投资尤为突出；10月失业率降至4.1%，当月新增就业16.5万个，前两个月数据合计上修8.5万个，近六个月与十二个月的平均月增就业约8万个，劳动供需大致平衡。
通胀一端，Waller 说9月数据「很糟、没有一线希望」：FOMC 盯住的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）9月环比上涨0.5%、同比上涨3.7%，核心 PCE 环比涨0.3%、同比涨3.1%，且涨价面明显扩大，核心 PCE 服务价格中七成以上分项的同比涨幅超过3%。他说，当天稍晚将看10月数据里这种广泛涨价是否延续，包括与 SI 建设相关的高科技商品价格是否继续快速上涨、能源价格上涨是否经由投入成本传导到商品与服务。
他引述美联储内部研究说，采购经理人调查显示的价格压力指标指向生产者价格还有上行空间；能源价格冲击对核心通胀的传导在疫情后可能更持久，若油价维持高位，压力可能延续到2027年。他提到，经霍尔木兹海峡的油轮运输如今成本高昂，保险与船对船转运据报把油价推高了每桶20至30美元，柴油生产又受炼能不足等约束，美国柴油价格难以随原油价格同样回落。
Waller 还提出一个长期问题：当前就业市场「低招工、低解雇」的格局是否意味着它已不如失业率显示的那么健康。他说，失业超过六个月者的占比自2022年以来持续攀升、新进入劳动力市场者在失业者中的占比接近二十年高位，这可能拖累生产率增长，值得继续监测；但就近期而言，他仍认为就业接近 FOMC 的充分就业目标，政策焦点在通胀一侧。
（来源：美联储）
Fed Governor Waller Backs a 25-Basis-Point December Hike and Says 50 Should Be Considered If Core Inflation Runs at 0.3%
LONDON — Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller delivered prepared remarks titled "Economic Outlook" in London on November 10. He said economic activity is strong and the labor market is stable, but inflation remains well above the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent goal, and that even if the October inflation data due later in the day improve over September, he is leaning toward supporting a 25-basis-point increase in the policy rate at the December meeting. If October core consumer price index (CPI) inflation comes in around 0.3 percent or higher, similar to the past two monthly readings, he said a 50-basis-point hike should be considered at the December meeting, and that hiking only 25 basis points would put the Fed's credibility at risk.
Waller said he supported holding the policy rate steady at the October meeting because the Committee's earlier communication about likely tightening had already led financial markets to price in some tightening, and what matters is that the promised hikes are eventually carried out within a reasonable period, not that rates rise at consecutive meetings. Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 3.4 percent in the third quarter on the initial estimate, supported by strong consumer spending and robust business investment, especially in high-tech equipment associated with the super intelligence (SI) buildout. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent in October, payrolls rose 165,000 in the month, and estimates for the previous two months were revised up by a combined 85,000, with six- and twelve-month average gains near 80,000 a month, leaving labor supply and demand in rough balance.
On inflation, Waller called September's data bad, with no silver lining: personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, the measure targeted by the FOMC, rose 0.5 percent in September and 3.7 percent over the previous 12 months, while core PCE inflation rose 0.3 percent on the month and 3.1 percent from a year earlier, and the breadth of price increases widened, with more than 70 percent of core PCE services components posting 12-month increases above 3 percent. He said he would look in the October data due later in the day to see whether that breadth continues, including whether high-tech goods prices tied to the SI buildout keep rising rapidly and whether the run-up in energy prices is passing through to goods and services.
Citing Federal Reserve research, he said price-pressure indexes built from purchasing manager surveys point to further producer price increases ahead, and that energy shocks may now pass through to core inflation in a more sustained way than in the past, with pressures potentially persisting well into 2027 if oil prices stay elevated. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is moving at great expense, with insurance and ship-to-ship transfers reportedly boosting oil prices by $20 to $30 a barrel, while limited refining capacity is expected to keep U.S. diesel prices elevated even if crude moderates.
Waller also raised a longer-run question about whether the current "low hire, low fire" labor market is as healthy as the headline unemployment rate suggests. The share of unemployed workers looking for work for more than six months has climbed steadily since 2022, and the share of new labor force entrants in unemployment is close to its highest in twenty years, which could hinder productivity growth, he said, though for now he sees employment close to the FOMC's maximum-employment goal and inflation as the focus of policy.
(Source: Federal Reserve Board)
来源：美联储
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：美国联邦储备委员会总部大楼（GSM 固定图库）。 / Photo: Federal Reserve Board headquarters (GSM asset library).
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